US demand for hybrid-electric and diesel internal combustion engines (ICEs) will grow at double-digit annual rates through 2009 from a small base. Mild hybrid ICEs will grow at a triple-digit rates. Fuel cell powerplants, while promising, must overcome significant barriers to reach the mass market.

This study analyzes the 17 million unit (mostly spark ignition) US automotive powerplant industry. It presents historical demand data for 1994, 1999 and 2004 and forecasts to 2009 and 2014 for spark ignition engines, diesel (compression ignition) engines, hybrid-electric internal combustion engines, and fuel cells.

The study also considers market environment indicators and powerplant technologies, reviews global supply and demand, details competitive hurdles and strategies, evaluates company market share and profiles 36 leading industry players including General Motors, Ford, DaimlerChrysler, Toyota, Honda, and Ballard Power Systems.

                           TABLE OF CONTENTS
                                    
  
  SECTION                                                          PAGE
  
  
         INTRODUCTION                                                xi
  
   I.    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                            1
  
  II.    MARKET ENVIRONMENT                                           4
         General                                                      4
         Macroeconomic Environment                                    5
         Light Vehicle Supply & Demand Dynamics                       8
         Automotive Industry Trends                                  10
         Legal & Regulatory Trends                                   12
           Air Quality                                               15
           Fuel Efficiency                                           18
           Global Warming                                            19
         Fuel Economy                                                20
         Pricing Trends                                              24
         Comparative Cost Analysis                                   26
           Average Kilowatts Produced                                27
           Average Powerplant Cost                                   28
                                                                       
 III.    GLOBAL SUPPLY & DEMAND                                      32
         General                                                     32
         Global Demand                                               34
           North America                                             35
           Western Europe                                            38
           Asia/Pacific                                              40
           Other Regions                                             42
         Global Supply                                               44
           North America                                             45
           Western Europe                                            47
           Asia/Pacific                                              49
           Other Regions                                             50
           
  IV.    TECHNOLOGY                                                  52
         General                                                     52
           Transition to Fuel Cells                                  53
           Well-to-Wheels Efficiency & Pollution Comparisons         54
         Internal Combustion Engines                                 56
           Spark Ignition Internal Combustion Engines                57
           Diesel Internal Combustion Engines                        58
         Hybrid-Electric ICE Powerplants                             61
              Series Hybrid                                          61
              Parallel Hybrid                                        62
              Mild Hybrid                                            62
           Advantages of the Hybrid-Electric ICE Powertrain          64
           Hybrid-Electric ICE Commercialization Issues              64
              Heat Management                                        65
              Power Control Systems                                  66
              Field Service                                          66
              Battery Life                                           66
         Fuel Cells                                                  67
           Basic Fuel Cell Properties                                69
           How Fuel Cells Work                                       70
           Fuel Cell Types                                           71
           Fuel Cell Fueling Strategies                              73
              High Pressure Hydrogen Storage                         74
              Hydrogen Absorption                                    74
              Cryogenic Storage                                      75
              Onboard Fuel Processor/Reformer Systems                75
           PEM Fuel Cell Commercialization -- Product Issues         76
              Start Up Issues                                        76
              Shutdown Issues                                        77
              Electro-Catalyst Poisoning Issues                      78
              Cold Temperatures Issues                               78
              Lifecycle Issues                                       79
           PEM Fuel Cell Commercialization -- Process Issues         79
         Energy Storage Technologies                                 81
         Competing Technologies                                      84
           
   V.    POWERPLANT COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW                             86
         General                                                     86
         Six Hurdles to Powerplant Dominance                         87
           Technology Readiness                                      90
           S-Curve Headroom                                          91
              Internal Combustion Engines                            92
              Hybrid-Electric ICEs                                   93
              Fuel Cells                                             93
              Electric Vehicles                                      94
           Regulatory Compliance                                     94
              Emissions Compliance                                   95
              Fuel Efficiency Compliance                             96
              Safety Compliance                                      96
           Infrastructure Readiness                                  97
              Fueling Infrastructure                                 97
              Service Infrastructure                                 98
           Consumer Price/Benefits                                   99
           Industry Focus                                           104
         Technology Penetration Profiles                            105
           Market Pull                                              108
           Regulatory Push                                          109
           Rapid Penetration                                        109
           Niche                                                    110
         Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Market Assessment                  110
           Automatic Transmissions                                  112
           Power Steering                                           113
           Air Conditioning                                         114
           Antilock Brake Systems                                   115
           Penetration Summary                                      115
           Penetration Analysis for HEVs                            117
         Markets                                                    119
           Types of Markets                                         121
           Light Vehicle Demand by Powerplant Type                  123
  
  VI.    INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES                                126
         General                                                    126
         Spark Ignition Engines                                     127
           Infinitely Variable Valve Timing                         128
           Cylinder Deactivation Systems                            129
           Direct Fuel Injection                                    129
           Feedback Plasma Ignition Systems                         130
           Hydrogen-Fueled Spark Ignition Engine                    131
           Spark Ignition ICE Producers                             133
         Diesel (Compression Ignition) Engines                      134
           Direct Injection                                         136
           Other Fuel System Advances                               137
           Particulate Trap                                         138
           Diesel ICE Producers                                     139
  
 VII.    HYBRID-ELECTRIC INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES                141
         General                                                    141
         Full Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engines           144
         Mild Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engines           148
         Hybrid-Electric ICE Producers                              150
         
VIII.    FUEL CELLS                                                 155
         General                                                    155
         Fuel Cell Configurations                                   157
         Fuel Cell Vehicles                                         159
         Onboard Hydrogen Fueling Technologies                      161
         Fuel Cell Producers                                        161
         
  IX.    POWERPLANT MARKET BY COMPANY                               163
         General                                                    163
         Original Equipment Manufacturers                           164
           OEM Strategic Requirements                               165
           OEM Strategic Options                                    167
         OEM Part & Component Suppliers                             169
           Supplier Strategic Requirements                          171
           Supplier Strategic Options                               172
           
   X.    INDUSTRY STRUCTURE                                         175
         General                                                    175
         Industry Composition & Market Share                        177
         Mergers, Acquisitions & Industry Restructuring             179
         Research & Product Development                             182
         Manufacturing                                              187
         Marketing                                                  188
         Distribution                                               190
         Financial Issues & Requirements                            192
         Strategic Partnerships                                     193
         Company Profiles                                           204
           Aisin Seiki Company Limited                              205
           Alfa SA de CV                                            207
           Ballard Power Systems Incorporated                       209
           Bayerische Motoren Werke AG                              212
           BERU AG, see BorgWarner Incorporated                        
           BorgWarner Incorporated                                  214
           Bosch (Robert) GmbH                                      217
           Cobasys LLC, see Energy Conversion Devices
           Cosworth Technology Limited, see MAHLE GmbH                 
           Cummins Incorporated                                     219
           DaimlerChrysler AG                                       220
           Delphi Corporation                                       225
           DENSO Corporation                                        227
           Detroit Diesel Corporation, see DaimlerChrysler             
           DuPont (EI) de Nemours                                   229
           Eaton Corporation                                        230
           Energy Conversion Devices Incorporated                   232
           Exide Technologies                                       235
           Federal-Mogul Corporation                                237
           Ford Motor Company                                       239
           Freescale Semiconductor Incorporated                     243
           General Motors Corporation                               245
           Global Electric Motorcars LLC, see DaimlerChrysler          
           Global Engine Manufacturing Alliance, see DaimlerChrysler   
           Hitachi Limited                                          250
           Holset Engineering Company, see Cummins Incorporated        
           Honda Motor Company Limited                              252
           Honeywell International Incorporated                     255
           International Truck and Engine Corporation, see 
              Navistar International Corporation                       
           Johnson Controls Incorporated                            257
           MAHLE GmbH                                               259
           Matsushita Electric Industrial Company Limited           261
           Motorola Incorporated                                    263
           Navistar International Corporation                       264
           Nemak SA, see Alfa SA de CV and Ford Motor Company          
           Nissan Motor Company Limited, see Renault SA                
           Ovonic Battery Company, see Energy Conversion Devices
           Ovonic Hydrogen Systems, see Energy Conversion Devices
           Panasonic EV Energy Company, see Matsushita Electric
              Industrial Company and Toyota Motor Corporation
           Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide
              Incorporated                                          266
           Renault SA                                               270
           Saft Groupe SA                                           273
           SANYO Electric Company Limited                           276
           Siemens AG                                               277
           Starcraft Corporation, see Quantum Fuel Systems 
              Technologies Worldwide                                   
           TorqTransfer Systems, see BorgWarner Incorporated           
           Toyota Motor Corporation                                 279
           United Technologies Corporation                          284
           UTC Fuel Cells, see United Technologies Corporation
           Valeo SA                                                 286
           Visteon Corporation                                      287
           Volkswagen AG                                            290
         
    

                            LIST OF TABLES
                                   
    TABLE NUMBER                                                   PAGE
  
     
     
         SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
         Summary Table                                                3
  
         SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
    1    Macroeconomic Environment                                    7
    2    Light Vehicle Indicators                                    10
    3    Light Vehicle Powerplant Assumed Kilowatt Output by Type    28
    4    Light Vehicle Powertrain Estimated Cost by Type             31
  
         SECTION III -- GLOBAL SUPPLY & DEMAND
    1    World Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type          35
    2    North America Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type  38
    3    Western Europe Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type 40
    4    Asia/Pacific Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type   42
    5    Other Regions Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type  43
    6    World Production of Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type       45
    7    North America Production of Light Vehicles 
           by Powerplant Type                                        47
    8    Western Europe Production of Light Vehicles 
           by Powerplant Type                                        48
    9    Asia/Pacific Production of Light Vehicles by Powerplant 
           Type                                                      50
   10    Other Regions Production of Light Vehicles by Powerplant
           Type                                                      51
  
         SECTION V -- POWERPLANT COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW
    1    Light Vehicle Demand by Powerplant Type                    125
  
         SECTION VI -- INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
    1    Internal Combustion Engine Light Vehicle Demand            127
    2    Spark Ignition Engine Light Vehicle Demand                 128
    3    Diesel Engine Light Vehicle Demand                         136
    
         SECTION VII -- HYBRID-ELECTRIC INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
    1    Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engine Light Vehicle 
           Demand                                                   144
    2     Full Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engine 
           Light Vehicle Demand                                     145
    3     Mild Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engine 
           Light Vehicle Demand                                     150
  
         SECTION VIII --FUEL CELLS
    1    Fuel Cell Light Vehicle Demand                             160
  
         SECTION X --INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
    1    Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures                       181
    2    Selected Cooperative Agreements                            195
           



                              LIST OF CHARTS
  
    CHART NUMBER                                                   PAGE
  
  
         SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
    1    US Light Vehicle Production by Company, 2004                12
    2    Options for Improving Light Vehicle Fuel Efficiency         22
    3    Honda Civic Hybrid Breakeven Versus Civic ICE LX Model, 
           US Market Example, 2004 Data                              24
  
         SECTION IV -- TECHNOLOGY
    1    Conceptual Technology Migration Profile: ICE to Fuel Cell   54
  
         SECTION V -- POWERPLANT COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW
    1    Alternative Powerplant Forces at Work                       87
    2    Light Vehicle Powerplant Technology Assessment              90
    3    Price/Benefits Analysis -- 2003-2005 Model Year            102
    4    HEV Price/Benefits Analysis -- 2003-2005 Model Year        104
    5    Categorizing Technology Penetration Curves -- 
           US Market Example                                        107
    6    Framework for Assessing Automotive Technology Penetration  108
    7    Automatic Transmission Penetration at Retail Price Analysis -- 
           US Passenger Car Example                                 112
    8    Power Steering Penetration at Retail Price Analysis -- 
           US Passenger Car Example                                 113
    9    Air Conditioning Penetration at Retail Price Analysis -- 
           US Passenger Car Example                                 114
   10    Antilock Brake System Penetration at Retail Price Analysis -- 
           US Passenger Car Example                                 115
   11    Summary of Technology Penetration Profiles -- US Example   117
   12    Estimated Full Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Option Pricing 
           Trend -- Worldwide Example                               119
  
         SECTION VI -- INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
    1    US Light Vehicle Spark Ignition Engine Market Share, 2004  134
    2    US Light Vehicle Diesel Engine Market Share, 2004          140
  
         SECTION VII -- HYBRID-ELECTRIC INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
    1    Historical & Potential Light HEV Introductions 
           Through 2009                                             143

        SECTION IX -- POWERPLANT MARKET BY COMPANY
   1    OEM Strategic Powerplant Options -- US Perspective          169
   2    Supplier Strategic Powerplant Supply Options                174
  
  
        SECTION X -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
   1    US Light Vehicle Powerplant Market Share, 2004              179
   2    Trigger Technology Definition -- Antilock Brake Wheel-Speed
          Sensor Example                                            184
   3    Advanced Powertrain Technologies with Multiple Possible
          Applications                                              187