Advances will be driven by a mild rebound in petroleum fuel demand as the economic recovery
continues and by an increase in additization rates due to mandated biofuel consumption
US demand to grow 4.8%
annually through 2016
US demand for specialty fuel additives
will grow 4.8 percent per year to $1.6
billion in 2016, with volume demand
increasing 1.1 percent annually to 725
million pounds. Advances will be driven
by a mild rebound in petroleum fuel
demand as the economic recovery
continues to strengthen and by an
increase in additization rates due to
rising biofuel consumption as mandated
by the federal government. Additionally,
market growth will reflect continued price
inflation due to upward pressure on raw
material costs as natural gas prices
rebound from their 2012 lows.
Cold flow improvers
to grow at fastest rate
Cold flow improvers will grow at the
fastest rate through 2016 due to the
increasing use of biodiesel in the fuel
supply, a requirement of the EPA’s
Renewable Fuel Standard 2 (RFS2).
Biodiesel’s reduced functionality in diesel
engines in winter conditions requires
higher loadings of cold flow improvers,
which will help drive demand. However,
biodiesel’s high cetane number and
excellent lubricating properties will also
reduce demand for lubricity improvers
and cetane improvers, making them the
only additives to experience a decline in
volume demand through 2016.
Dyes and
markers and metal deactivators will also
not benefit from growing fuel demand,
with volume demand for both products
remaining flat through 2016. Dyes and
markers will be mildly impacted by an
end to EPA-mandated dyeing of high
sulfur fuels, while metal deactivator
loadings will decrease slightly due to the
use of more metal-free additives in fuel.
Demand for antioxidants, corrosion
inhibitors, and other additives will all
expand at a moderate pace, due to
increasing fuel demand.
Deposit control agents will remain the
largest product segment. A previous
attempt by the EPA to regulate detergent
levels in gasoline actually resulted in a
decrease in demand, causing depositrelated
engine problems. This prompted
several automakers to establish the Top
Tier Detergent Gasoline standard in
2004. Deposit control demand rebounded
quickly as most major gasoline
brands adopted the Top Tier standard.
Future growth in this segment will be
aided by recent retailer efforts to differentiate
their products by promoting the
high concentrations of detergents in their
gasoline.
Blenders, terminals to
remain largest market
Blenders and terminals will remain the
largest market for fuel additives. Demand
in this market will continue to grow
as marketers attempt to differentiate
their fuel offerings to end-consumers.
Aftermarket volume demand will benefit
from customers’ efforts to offset rising
gasoline costs by increasing fuel efficiency.
Study Scope
This study analyzes the $1.3 billion US specialty fuel additives industry. It presents historical demand data for the years 2001, 2006 and 2011, and forecasts for 2016 and 2021 by additive type (e.g., detergents, cetane improvers, antioxidants, lubricity improvers, cold flow improvers, petroleum dyes and markers, corrosion inhibitors), application (e.g., gasoline, diesel fuel) and market (blenders and terminals, refiners, aftermarket).
The study also considers market environment factors, details industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles 32 industry players, including NewMarket, Innospec and BASF.
