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World Tractors to 2016

As Quoted In AgFax 
 





Study #: 2984
Document Type: Industry Study
Date Published: Feb-2013
Format:
   Full study: PDF
   Section, Pages, Tables and Charts: HTML
Pages: 407
Price: $6,300.00
       

    

Slowing growth in many large, developing countries (e.g., Brazil, China, India) after an extended period of rapid gains will counterbalance a strong recovery in the US, Western Europe, and Japan.

World demand to rise 6.8% annually through 2016

World demand for tractors is expected to increase 6.8 percent per year through 2016 to $122 billion, growing at the same pace as during the 2006-2011 period. A moderation in sales growth in many large, developing countries -- particularly Brazil, China, and India -- after an extended period of rapid gains will counterbalance a strong recovery in the US, Western Europe, and Japan from the effects of the 2009 global economic recession.

Asia/Pacific region to remain dominant market

Demand for tractors in the Asia/Pacific region will be more than twice that of any other region in 2016, with China alone comprising 31 percent of the global total. Healthy population expansion and economic growth in China and other developing Asian nations such as India and Thailand will drive an expansion in construction activity in these countries and place heightened pressure on their agricultural sectors to become more efficient and productive, boosting associated tractor sales. Central and South America will post strong sales gains as well, due primarily to the large and increasingly mechanized agricultural sectors in Brazil and Argentina.

In the mature markets of the industrialized world, sales of tractors will continue to be largely determined by demand for replacement machinery and the efficiency gains provided by newer, more sophisticated equipment. During the 2008-2009 economic crisis, many tractor operators in the agriculture, construction, and mining sectors delayed replacing older machinery, and the inherent time lag in each of these markets in response to improving economic circumstances will govern tractor sales growth patterns going forward. While the construction and mining sectors tend to respond more slowly to changes in economic conditions due to the large amounts of capital that must be committed, the agricultural sector typically responds much more quickly. This release of pent-up demand will act as a restraint on market growth for a number of years, until the start of a new replacement cycle.

Construction and mining markets to see strong gains

Agricultural tractors will continue to account for the largest share of product sales in 2016, followed by tractors for construction and mining applications. However, due primarily to high 2011 levels of demand and the timing of replacement cycles in the US, Western Europe, and Japan, global agricultural tractor sales growth will slow through 2016. Increased construction expenditures and mining output in many areas of the world will drive healthy gains in these market segments. On the other hand, demand for commercial and consumer tractors will be hindered by limited opportunities for sales growth in the US.

Study Scope

This study analyzes the $88 billion world tractor industry. It presents historical demand data for the years 2001, 2006 and 2011, and forecasts for 2016 and 2021 by market (e.g., agriculture, construction, mining, consumer and commercial), product (wheeled, crawler, pedestrian-controlled), world region and for 23 countries. The study also considers market environment factors, details industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles 40 industry participants, including Caterpillar, Deere, and AGCO.
 









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