US demand for lamps is projected to decline nearly two percent annually in unit terms through 2015 as the market adjusts to the provisions of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which will effectively ban the sale of general service incandescent lamps starting in 2012. Compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) and halogen lamps are expected to replace most incandescents. Since both CFLs and halogen lamps have much longer lives than incandescent lamps, the average replacement rate for lamps will decrease over time, depressing unit demand. However, because both CFLs and halogen lamps are more expensive than the incandescent lamps they will replace, the value of the lamp market is expected to increase 1.1 percent annually to $6.1 billion in 2015. Light emitting diodes will pose a serious threat to lamp demand in the long term. These and other trends, including market share and product segmentation, are presented in US Lamps, a new study from The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland-based industry market research firm.
Halogen lamps are expected to see the strongest demand increases through 2015, rising almost eleven percent annually to $1.5 billion. These lamps are the most similar to traditional incandescents and will benefit from consumer familiarity, low initial cost and good light quality. In addition, an increase in motor vehicle production will spur halogen headlight demand. However, halogen lamps are less efficient and shorter-lived than LEDs and will face strong competition from these products over the longer term.
Demand for fluorescent lamps is projected to increase 1.7 percent annually to $2.7 billion in 2015, a deceleration from the rapid pace achieved between 2005 and 2010. Much of the gains in that period were in CFLs, which made strong advances in the residential market from a small initial base. While CFL demand will continue to benefit from increased efficiency standards and the replacement of incandescent lamps, the market for these lamps is maturing and, over the longer term, will decline due to competition from LEDs.
Through 2015, demand for high intensity discharge and other discharge lamps is forecast to rise 2.3 percent per year to $1.2 billion. These products will benefit from relatively robust growth in the outdoor lighting market, and increasing market penetration in the motor vehicle market. However, preventing even more rapid growth will be the expected moderation in prices for many types of electric discharge lamps.
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