| Inform your business decisions - authoritative market research - reliable forecasts Learn more about our industry study - purchase by the page or the full report: Study #: 2025 Published: 01/2006 Pages: 291 Full Study Price: US$ 4,200 Per Page Price: US$ 35.00 (text) | 60.00 (table) Hybrid Electric Vehicles & Competing Automotive Powerplants to 2009 - Market Research, Market Share, Market Size, Sales, Demand Forecast, Market Leaders, Company Profiles, Industry Trends US demand for hybrid-electric and diesel internal combustion engines (ICEs) will grow at double-digit annual rates through 2009 from a small base. Mild hybrid ICEs will grow at a triple-digit rates. Fuel cell powerplants, while promising, must overcome significant barriers to reach the mass market. This study analyzes the 17 million unit (mostly spark ignition) US automotive powerplant industry. It presents historical demand data for 1994, 1999 and 2004 and forecasts to 2009 and 2014 for spark ignition engines, diesel (compression ignition) engines, hybrid-electric internal combustion engines, and fuel cells. The study also considers market environment indicators and powerplant technologies, reviews global supply and demand, details competitive hurdles and strategies, evaluates company market share and profiles 36 leading industry players including General Motors, Ford, DaimlerChrysler, Toyota, Honda, and Ballard Power Systems.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECTION PAGE
INTRODUCTION xi
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT 4
General 4
Macroeconomic Environment 5
Light Vehicle Supply & Demand Dynamics 8
Automotive Industry Trends 10
Legal & Regulatory Trends 12
Air Quality 15
Fuel Efficiency 18
Global Warming 19
Fuel Economy 20
Pricing Trends 24
Comparative Cost Analysis 26
Average Kilowatts Produced 27
Average Powerplant Cost 28
III. GLOBAL SUPPLY & DEMAND 32
General 32
Global Demand 34
North America 35
Western Europe 38
Asia/Pacific 40
Other Regions 42
Global Supply 44
North America 45
Western Europe 47
Asia/Pacific 49
Other Regions 50
IV. TECHNOLOGY 52
General 52
Transition to Fuel Cells 53
Well-to-Wheels Efficiency & Pollution Comparisons 54
Internal Combustion Engines 56
Spark Ignition Internal Combustion Engines 57
Diesel Internal Combustion Engines 58
Hybrid-Electric ICE Powerplants 61
Series Hybrid 61
Parallel Hybrid 62
Mild Hybrid 62
Advantages of the Hybrid-Electric ICE Powertrain 64
Hybrid-Electric ICE Commercialization Issues 64
Heat Management 65
Power Control Systems 66
Field Service 66
Battery Life 66
Fuel Cells 67
Basic Fuel Cell Properties 69
How Fuel Cells Work 70
Fuel Cell Types 71
Fuel Cell Fueling Strategies 73
High Pressure Hydrogen Storage 74
Hydrogen Absorption 74
Cryogenic Storage 75
Onboard Fuel Processor/Reformer Systems 75
PEM Fuel Cell Commercialization -- Product Issues 76
Start Up Issues 76
Shutdown Issues 77
Electro-Catalyst Poisoning Issues 78
Cold Temperatures Issues 78
Lifecycle Issues 79
PEM Fuel Cell Commercialization -- Process Issues 79
Energy Storage Technologies 81
Competing Technologies 84
V. POWERPLANT COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW 86
General 86
Six Hurdles to Powerplant Dominance 87
Technology Readiness 90
S-Curve Headroom 91
Internal Combustion Engines 92
Hybrid-Electric ICEs 93
Fuel Cells 93
Electric Vehicles 94
Regulatory Compliance 94
Emissions Compliance 95
Fuel Efficiency Compliance 96
Safety Compliance 96
Infrastructure Readiness 97
Fueling Infrastructure 97
Service Infrastructure 98
Consumer Price/Benefits 99
Industry Focus 104
Technology Penetration Profiles 105
Market Pull 108
Regulatory Push 109
Rapid Penetration 109
Niche 110
Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Market Assessment 110
Automatic Transmissions 112
Power Steering 113
Air Conditioning 114
Antilock Brake Systems 115
Penetration Summary 115
Penetration Analysis for HEVs 117
Markets 119
Types of Markets 121
Light Vehicle Demand by Powerplant Type 123
VI. INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES 126
General 126
Spark Ignition Engines 127
Infinitely Variable Valve Timing 128
Cylinder Deactivation Systems 129
Direct Fuel Injection 129
Feedback Plasma Ignition Systems 130
Hydrogen-Fueled Spark Ignition Engine 131
Spark Ignition ICE Producers 133
Diesel (Compression Ignition) Engines 134
Direct Injection 136
Other Fuel System Advances 137
Particulate Trap 138
Diesel ICE Producers 139
VII. HYBRID-ELECTRIC INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES 141
General 141
Full Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engines 144
Mild Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engines 148
Hybrid-Electric ICE Producers 150
VIII. FUEL CELLS 155
General 155
Fuel Cell Configurations 157
Fuel Cell Vehicles 159
Onboard Hydrogen Fueling Technologies 161
Fuel Cell Producers 161
IX. POWERPLANT MARKET BY COMPANY 163
General 163
Original Equipment Manufacturers 164
OEM Strategic Requirements 165
OEM Strategic Options 167
OEM Part & Component Suppliers 169
Supplier Strategic Requirements 171
Supplier Strategic Options 172
X. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 175
General 175
Industry Composition & Market Share 177
Mergers, Acquisitions & Industry Restructuring 179
Research & Product Development 182
Manufacturing 187
Marketing 188
Distribution 190
Financial Issues & Requirements 192
Strategic Partnerships 193
Company Profiles 204
Aisin Seiki Company Limited 205
Alfa SA de CV 207
Ballard Power Systems Incorporated 209
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG 212
BERU AG, see BorgWarner Incorporated
BorgWarner Incorporated 214
Bosch (Robert) GmbH 217
Cobasys LLC, see Energy Conversion Devices
Cosworth Technology Limited, see MAHLE GmbH
Cummins Incorporated 219
DaimlerChrysler AG 220
Delphi Corporation 225
DENSO Corporation 227
Detroit Diesel Corporation, see DaimlerChrysler
DuPont (EI) de Nemours 229
Eaton Corporation 230
Energy Conversion Devices Incorporated 232
Exide Technologies 235
Federal-Mogul Corporation 237
Ford Motor Company 239
Freescale Semiconductor Incorporated 243
General Motors Corporation 245
Global Electric Motorcars LLC, see DaimlerChrysler
Global Engine Manufacturing Alliance, see DaimlerChrysler
Hitachi Limited 250
Holset Engineering Company, see Cummins Incorporated
Honda Motor Company Limited 252
Honeywell International Incorporated 255
International Truck and Engine Corporation, see
Navistar International Corporation
Johnson Controls Incorporated 257
MAHLE GmbH 259
Matsushita Electric Industrial Company Limited 261
Motorola Incorporated 263
Navistar International Corporation 264
Nemak SA, see Alfa SA de CV and Ford Motor Company
Nissan Motor Company Limited, see Renault SA
Ovonic Battery Company, see Energy Conversion Devices
Ovonic Hydrogen Systems, see Energy Conversion Devices
Panasonic EV Energy Company, see Matsushita Electric
Industrial Company and Toyota Motor Corporation
Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide
Incorporated 266
Renault SA 270
Saft Groupe SA 273
SANYO Electric Company Limited 276
Siemens AG 277
Starcraft Corporation, see Quantum Fuel Systems
Technologies Worldwide
TorqTransfer Systems, see BorgWarner Incorporated
Toyota Motor Corporation 279
United Technologies Corporation 284
UTC Fuel Cells, see United Technologies Corporation
Valeo SA 286
Visteon Corporation 287
Volkswagen AG 290
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE NUMBER PAGE
SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary Table 3
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
1 Macroeconomic Environment 7
2 Light Vehicle Indicators 10
3 Light Vehicle Powerplant Assumed Kilowatt Output by Type 28
4 Light Vehicle Powertrain Estimated Cost by Type 31
SECTION III -- GLOBAL SUPPLY & DEMAND
1 World Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type 35
2 North America Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type 38
3 Western Europe Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type 40
4 Asia/Pacific Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type 42
5 Other Regions Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type 43
6 World Production of Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type 45
7 North America Production of Light Vehicles
by Powerplant Type 47
8 Western Europe Production of Light Vehicles
by Powerplant Type 48
9 Asia/Pacific Production of Light Vehicles by Powerplant
Type 50
10 Other Regions Production of Light Vehicles by Powerplant
Type 51
SECTION V -- POWERPLANT COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW
1 Light Vehicle Demand by Powerplant Type 125
SECTION VI -- INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
1 Internal Combustion Engine Light Vehicle Demand 127
2 Spark Ignition Engine Light Vehicle Demand 128
3 Diesel Engine Light Vehicle Demand 136
SECTION VII -- HYBRID-ELECTRIC INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
1 Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engine Light Vehicle
Demand 144
2 Full Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engine
Light Vehicle Demand 145
3 Mild Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engine
Light Vehicle Demand 150
SECTION VIII --FUEL CELLS
1 Fuel Cell Light Vehicle Demand 160
SECTION X --INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures 181
2 Selected Cooperative Agreements 195
LIST OF CHARTS
CHART NUMBER PAGE
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
1 US Light Vehicle Production by Company, 2004 12
2 Options for Improving Light Vehicle Fuel Efficiency 22
3 Honda Civic Hybrid Breakeven Versus Civic ICE LX Model,
US Market Example, 2004 Data 24
SECTION IV -- TECHNOLOGY
1 Conceptual Technology Migration Profile: ICE to Fuel Cell 54
SECTION V -- POWERPLANT COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW
1 Alternative Powerplant Forces at Work 87
2 Light Vehicle Powerplant Technology Assessment 90
3 Price/Benefits Analysis -- 2003-2005 Model Year 102
4 HEV Price/Benefits Analysis -- 2003-2005 Model Year 104
5 Categorizing Technology Penetration Curves --
US Market Example 107
6 Framework for Assessing Automotive Technology Penetration 108
7 Automatic Transmission Penetration at Retail Price Analysis --
US Passenger Car Example 112
8 Power Steering Penetration at Retail Price Analysis --
US Passenger Car Example 113
9 Air Conditioning Penetration at Retail Price Analysis --
US Passenger Car Example 114
10 Antilock Brake System Penetration at Retail Price Analysis --
US Passenger Car Example 115
11 Summary of Technology Penetration Profiles -- US Example 117
12 Estimated Full Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Option Pricing
Trend -- Worldwide Example 119
SECTION VI -- INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
1 US Light Vehicle Spark Ignition Engine Market Share, 2004 134
2 US Light Vehicle Diesel Engine Market Share, 2004 140
SECTION VII -- HYBRID-ELECTRIC INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
1 Historical & Potential Light HEV Introductions
Through 2009 143
SECTION IX -- POWERPLANT MARKET BY COMPANY
1 OEM Strategic Powerplant Options -- US Perspective 169
2 Supplier Strategic Powerplant Supply Options 174
SECTION X -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 US Light Vehicle Powerplant Market Share, 2004 179
2 Trigger Technology Definition -- Antilock Brake Wheel-Speed
Sensor Example 184
3 Advanced Powertrain Technologies with Multiple Possible
Applications 187
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