Macroeconomy: United States

This report forecasts to 2020 US gross domestic product (GDP) and retail sales in nominal and inflation-adjusted (real) US dollars, and the size of the labor force. Nominal and real GDP are segmented by sector in terms of: services personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nondurable goods PCE, durable goods PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, federal government spending, change in private inventories, and net exports. Nominal and real GDP are also segmented by US region in terms of: South Atlantic (South), West South Central (South), East South Central (South), Pacific (West), Mountain (West), Middle Atlantic (Northeast), New England (Northeast), East North Central (Midwest), and West North Central (Midwest). Nominal retail sales of nondurable and durable goods are segmented by business type as follows: food and beverage stores, general merchandisers, eating and drinking places, gasoline service stations, healthcare and drug stores, apparel and accessory stores, other nondurable good retailers, automotive dealers, general hardware outlets, electronic and appliance stores, furniture and furnishing outlets, and other durable good retailers.

To illustrate historical trends, GDP, retail sales, disposable personal income, interest rates, labor force size, and the various segments are provided in annual series from 2005 to 2015. A Market Environment section provides pertinent background on historical GDP trends, as well as trends in key indicators, the civilian labor force, interest rates, and NAFTA GDP. A Segmentation and Forecasts section defines sectors, regions, and retail sales, discusses drivers and constraints, and assesses the impact of key drivers and constraints on each sector, region, and retail sales segment over the forecast period.

A one-page, introductory Highlights section summarizes key findings from this 25-page report, and a Resources section lists contributing sources as well as resources available for further research.

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