US & Global Economic Impact Analysis and Forecasts

Freedonia analysts and economists are sharing their insights on how major events are impacting different parts of the US and global economies.

Seafood Industry Facing Challenges from In-House Dining Shut-Downs But Has Opportunities to Appeal to Home Cooks

April 10, 2020 - The seafood industry is seeing challenges during the coronavirus crisis. Many food industries are balancing losses in the foodservice market against gains in the retail as consumers shift their food spending away from restaurants to stocking their home refrigerator, freezer, and pantry.

However, the seafood industry has typically relied heavily on foodservice, with more than two-thirds of the value of consumer spending on seafood occurring at restaurants, caterers, and others. Higher value versions (e.g., scallops, lobster) are particularly hard-hit by the loss of sales to this sector. The worldwide industry is further hampered by economic slowdowns in key global seafood-consuming nations such as China, Italy, Japan, and Spain.

Seafood sales are more challenged on the retail side than many other foods:

  • Many consumers are not in the habit of cooking seafood.
  • Some home cooks consider seafood more difficult to cook properly.
  • Picky tastes among children may keep families from buying and serving seafood to the family at large.
  • Seafood is often more expensive than other proteins, which will prevent consumers who are concerned about their budgets in an uncertain economic period from buying it.

However, consumers still view seafood as healthy. Additionally, more time spent at home is leading some home cooks to experiment with recipes they might have considered to be too complicated or time consuming before. Falling prices associated with an oversupply may also convince consumers to increase seafood purchases made through retail outlets.

Marketing efforts to bolster sales could include emphasizing the healthful benefits and nutritional content of seafood, as well as providing chef-driven instructional videos and recipes. Products that are free of artificial flavors, colors, and preservatives take advantage of current clean eating trends. However, ready-to-eat and recipe-ready products accommodate consumer desire for convenience.

For more information, see our sister publisher Packaged Facts’ coverage of the food industry, including The Organic and Clean Label Food Shopper, Affluent Food Shoppers, Global Food E-Commerce as well as The Freedonia Group’s reports on Meat, Poultry & Seafood Packaging, which includes a new addendum with COVID-19 market impact analysis and an estimated market size for year 2020, and Global Aquaculture.

  Consumer Goods      Covid-19      Food & Beverage      Packaging    

Face Masks: Production Shortages & Export Restrictions

On Thursday April 2, the Trump administration invoked the Defense Production Act requiring 3M to prioritize sales of its face masks to the US Federal Emergency Management Agency over other customers.

Before the COVID-19 crisis, 90% of 3M’s N95 mask capacity had been going to industrial customers. However, the CEO of 3M has already noted that the company has shifted sales so that 80% of its US sales now go to healthcare facilities in the hardest-hit areas, while the other 20% go to federal agencies such as FEMA. The concerns were that 3M – which sells US-made masks to Canada, Mexico, and Latin America (including countries where it is the sole supplier of N95 masks) – would not be able to fulfill the needs of domestic and global customers. However, restricting supply to other countries may lead to retaliation and shortages in these or other areas.

The US is only responsible for about 30% of the global production of medical disposable equipment in value terms. While the US is, overall, a net exporter of these products, that status does not hold across all individual product categories. Particularly in a time of crisis, the US must cooperate with all markets within global industries, which is part of what could make the demand that 3M reappropriate its existing and expanding capacity deeply problematic. Canada, which buys US-made face masks from 3M, is a key supplier of wood pulp, a primary material used to make N95 face masks as well as test kits and gloves. Global supply chains demand cooperation to function smoothly.

As of Sunday April 5, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did not yet have plans to retaliate and expressed hope that the supply situation could be addressed through diplomatic channels instead.  

For more information, see The Freedonia Group’s US Disposable Medical Supplies, Global Disposable Medical Supplies, Global Nonwovens reports. Freedonia Custom Research is also available for questions requiring tailored market intelligence.

  Consumer Goods      Covid-19      Textiles & Nonwovens    

US Home Building Declared Essential by Department of Homeland Security

Building and construction professionals across the nation were cheered by the recent decision by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) that home building was an “essential” business. While individual state and local authorities can issue regulations more closely defining what is an essential business, the inclusion of home builders by the DHS in its list of essential industries means that – in many jurisdictions – the erection of new single-family and multifamily housing units can continue.

This declaration underscores the importance – even in a time of pandemic – of the home building industry to the US economy. In addition to the millions of jobs the industry provides, the US faces a lack of affordable housing, something which can only be remediated by the construction of new homes and apartments. Integral to the recovery of the US economy after the COVID-19 pandemic subsides will be the addition of new and affordable to nation’s housing stock.

While construction of new homes will continue in many parts of the US, state and local governments across the country are working to limit the spread of coronavirus on job sites by requiring:

  • social distancing between workers
  • limited numbers of subcontractors on a job site at any given time
  • periodic temperature checks of workers
  • frequent cleaning and sterilization of tools and equipment

For more information about the US home building industry, see The Freedonia Group’s coverage of the Construction and Building Products industries.

Expanding Range of Manufacturers Declared “Essential” Shows Importance of Construction Industry to Nation

April 2, 2020 - The US Department of Homeland Security issued revised guidelines as to which firms could be considered “essential” and thus could remain in operation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Among the firms specified by the DHS were those involved in the production of:

  • cabinets
  • windows and doors
  • plumbing products
  • heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment
  • paints and coatings
  • store fixtures
  • appliances

This revised guidance as to what is considered to be essential demonstrates the continuing importance of the nation’s construction industry, even in times of crisis. The US faces a shortage of affordable housing units and – in many areas – will require additional medical facilities to treat those affected by COVID-19 and other ailments.

By declaring that firms manufacturing those items used in homes, medical facilities, and other structures, the US is signaling its commitment to ensuring that the US will not only continue to fight coronavirus but also to ensure that the economy – once the pandemic ends – can return to normal as quickly as possible.

For more information about the US cabinets, windows and doors, plumbing, HVAC equipment, appliances, and paints and coatings industry, see The Freedonia Group’s coverage of the Construction and Building Products industries.

Despite Pet Industry’s Strengths, 17% Sales Drop Projected for 2020

The pet industry is famously recession resistant, coming through both the September 11, 2001, attacks and the Great Recession of 2008-09 relatively unscathed. However, not even the new “pet parent” sensibility can make the pet industry recession-proof in the midst of the novel coronavirus pandemic. 

In its just-published U.S. Pet Market Outlook 2020-2021, market research firm Package Facts forecasts that total U.S. retail sales of pet products and services will decline by 17% in 2020, compared with the 5% growth anticipated prior to the coronavirus pandemic. The firm projects a substantial, though partial, rebound in 2021 that will stem from the underlying strength of the pet industry.

The U.S. pet industry is coming off a strong performance in 2019, with overall sales of products and services rising 5.4% despite the maturity and impressive scope of the pet industry.

For more information, see the rest of the pet industry coverage from our sister publisher, Packaged Facts.

  Consumer Goods      Covid-19