Study #: 4143 | Published: 06/2021 | Pages: 204 | Individual User License: US$ 5,000

US demand for lumber is forecast to advance modestly through 2025 to 68.8 billion board feet valued at $51.0 billion. Although demand for lumber will remain strong in 2021 – bolstered by a high level of new housing activity and continuing consumer interest in home improvement projects – new housing activity will retreat by 2025, which will restrain gains for lumber. The building of a new single-family home one of the most intensive uses of lumber in the US.

Overall growth in demand for lumber over this time will be supported by:

  • continuing interest in home improvement projects, such as kitchen and bathroom renovations and adding home offices and gyms
  • the modest recovery in nonresidential construction activity from its pandemic-induced low base

High Demand & Shortage of Supply Drive Booming Softwood Lumber Prices

Untreated softwood lumber prices surged dramatically in 2020 as lumber mills – in expectation that demand would fall amid the pandemic – reduced production, particularly of the softwood lumber most often used in building and construction projects. However, demand for lumber was at an elevated level throughout much of 2020 and into 2021. New housing activity remained strong as people leaving urban cores sought out residences in suburban and exurban areas, while stuck-at-home homeowners took to DIY improvement projects to fill the time or economically complete home repairs. Lumber prices continued to climb into 2021 as demand remained strong and sawmills struggled to meet demand for the material. However, by mid-2021 prices have already begun to drop – from very high levels – as sawmills continue to ramp up production.

Tariffs Will Continue to Have an Impact on US Lumber Market

Tariffs levied against Canadian softwood lumber back in 2017 affected Canadian firms’ profit levels in the US, causing a number of them to stop selling products in the country. This became a significant issue in 2020, as lower lumber supplies caused prices to surge, making it expensive for professionals and consumers to acquire the lumber necessary to complete projects. As many domestic firms have started capacity expansions at mills located in the US to meet surging demand for lumber, they will prefer that these tariffs remain in effect, allowing them to better recoup their investments with less competition from Canadian-sourced lumber.

Interior Finish Applications to Post Strongest Growth Going Forward

Interior finish applications are expected to see the most rapid gains in lumber use. Rising homeowner interest in installing hardwood flooring because of its favorable aesthetic properties will boost demand for hardwood lumber, as will continuing growth in kitchen and bathroom remodeling – hardwood lumber is often used to build the cabinets installed during these renovation projects. Growth prospects for softwood lumber in interior applications will be supported by increasing use of interior moulding among home builders as a way to attract potential buyers by improving the interior appearance of their residences.


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Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. COVID-19 Pandemic

Overview

Impact on the Economy

Impact on the Construction Industry

Impact on the Lumber Industry

3. Overview

Study Scope

Historical Trends

Production & Trade

Shipments & Net Exports

Imports

Exports

Impact of Tariffs

Demand by Type & Market

Pricing Trends

Sustainability Issues

Green Building Practices

Forest Management

Recycling & Recycled Content

Treatment Chemicals

4. Construction Market

Market Scope

Market Overview

Demand by Market Sector

New Residential Buildings

Residential Repair & Remodeling

Nonresidential Buildings

Nonbuilding

Products

Applications

Regional Trends

5. Industrial & Commercial Markets

Market Scope

Products

Applications

Demand by Application

Pallets & Crates (Packaging & Shipping)

Furniture

Other Industrial & Commercial (Vehicles, Signage)

Regional Trends

6. Solid Wood Lumber

Scope & Product Description

Shipments & Foreign Trade

Types of Solid Wood Lumber

Demand by Type

Untreated Softwood Lumber

Pressure-Treated Lumber

Hardwood Lumber

Markets & Applications

Market Share & Key Suppliers

7. Engineered Lumber

Scope & Product Description

Shipments & Foreign Trade

Demand by Type (I-Joists, Glulam, LVL, & Other)

Markets & Applications

Key Suppliers

8. Structural & Framing Lumber

Scope

Applications

Demand by Application

Wall Framing

Roof Framing

Structural Floors & Foundations

Products

Regional Trends

Competitive Products

9. Exterior Finish Lumber

Scope

Applications

Demand by Application

Roofing

Siding

Other Exterior Finish (Soffits & Fascia, Shutters, Exterior Trim)

Products

Regional Trends

Competitive Products

10. Interior Finish Lumber

Scope

Applications

Demand by Application

Finish Flooring

Doors & Windows

Cabinets

Interior Moulding & Trim

Other (Ceilings, Countertops, Paneling, Stairs & Railings, Mantels)

Products

Regional Trends

Competitive Products

11. Landscaping & Outdoor Lumber

Scope

Applications

Demand by Application

Decking

Fencing

Porches & Patios

Outdoor Structures (Gazebos, Arbors, Walls, Pergolas)

Other Landscaping & Outdoor Applications (Playgrounds, Roads & Bridges, Piers, Boardwalks)

Products

Regional Trends

Competitive Products

12. Regional Trends

Demand by Region

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

13. Industry Structure

Key Findings & Industry Composition

US Lumber Production Capacity

Market Share

Mergers & Acquisitions

List of Industry Participants

14. Appendix

Report Details

Definitions

Abbreviations

Freedonia Methodology

Study-Specific Methodology

Sources

Associations & Agencies

Related Studies & Reports

Macroeconomic Assumptions

Economic Environment

Demographic Trends

Consumer Spending

Consumer Financing

Building Construction

Residential Building Construction

New Housing

Housing Stock

Residential Improvements & Repairs

Commercial Building Construction

Commercial Building Stock

Commercial Improvements & Repairs

Nonbuilding Construction Expenditures

Manufacturers' Shipments


List of Tables

2. COVID-19 Pandemic

Table 2-1 | Macroeconomic Indicators, 2019 - 2022 (billion 2012 dollars)

Table 2-2 | Construction Expenditures, 2019 - 2022 (billion 2012 dollars & billion dollars)

Table 2-3 | Annual Lumber Demand by Product, 2019 - 2021 (million board feet)

Table 2-4 | Annual Lumber Demand by Market, 2019 - 2021 (million board feet)

3. Overview

Table 3-1 | Lumber Demand, 2010 - 2020 (million board feet)

Table 3-2 | Lumber Supply & Demand, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 3-3 | Lumber Imports by Country, 2010 - 2020 (million board feet)

Table 3-4 | Lumber Exports by Country, 2010 - 2020 (million board feet)

Table 3-5 | Lumber Demand by Type & Market, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet & million dollars)

Table 3-6 | Lumber Average Prices by Type, 2010 - 2030 (dollars per board foot)

4. Construction Market

Table 4-1 | Construction Lumber Demand by Market Sector, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 4-2 | New Residential Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 4-3 | Residential Repair & Remodeling Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 4-4 | Nonresidential Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 4-5 | Nonbuilding Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 4-6 | Construction Lumber Demand by Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 4-7 | Construction Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 4-8 | Construction Lumber Demand by Region, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

5. Industrial & Commercial Markets

Table 5-1 | Industrial & Commercial Lumber Demand by Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 5-2 | Industrial & Commercial Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 5-3 | Pallet & Crate Lumber Demand by Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 5-4 | Furniture Lumber Demand by Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 5-5 | Other Industrial & Commercial Lumber Demand by Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 5-6 | Industrial & Commercial Lumber Demand by Region, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

6. Solid Wood Lumber

Table 6-1 | Solid Wood Lumber Shipments & Foreign Trade, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 6-2 | Solid Wood Lumber Demand by Type, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet & million dollars)

Table 6-3 | Untreated Softwood Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet & million dollars)

Table 6-4 | Pressure Treated Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet & million dollars)

Table 6-5 | Hardwood Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet & million dollars)

Table 6-6 | Solid Wood Lumber Demand by Application & Market, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

7. Engineered Lumber

Table 7-1 | Engineered Lumber Shipments & Foreign Trade, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 7-2 | Engineered Lumber Demand by Type, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet & million dollars)

Table 7-3 | Engineered Lumber Demand by Market & Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

8. Structural & Framing Lumber

Table 8-1 | Structural & Framing Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 8-2 | Wall Framing Lumber Demand by Market & Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 8-3 | Roof Framing Lumber Demand by Market & Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 8-4 | Structural Floor & Foundation Lumber Demand by Market & Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 8-5 | Structural & Framing Lumber Demand by Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 8-6 | Structural & Framing Lumber Demand by Region, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

9. Exterior Finish Lumber

Table 9-1 | Exterior Finish Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 9-2 | Roofing Lumber Demand by Market, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 9-3 | Siding Lumber Demand by Market, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 9-4 | Other Exterior Finish Lumber Demand by Market, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 9-5 | Exterior Finish Lumber Demand by Region, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

10. Interior Finish Lumber

Table 10-1 | Interior Finish Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 10-2 | Flooring Lumber Demand by Market & Product, 2010 - 2030 (million square feet)

Table 10-3 | Door & Window Lumber Demand by Market & Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 10-4 | Cabinet Lumber Demand by Market & Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 10-5 | Interior Moulding & Trim Lumber Demand by Market and Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 10-6 | Other Interior Finish Applications Lumber Demand by Market & Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 10-7 | Interior Finish Lumber Demand by Product, 2010 - 2030 (million square feet)

Table 10-8 | Interior Finish Lumber Demand by Region, 2010 - 2030 (million square feet)

11. Landscaping & Outdoor Lumber

Table 11-1 | Landscaping & Outdoor Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 11-2 | Decking Lumber Demand by Market & Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 11-3 | Fencing Lumber Demand by Market & Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 11-4 | Porch & Patio Lumber Demand by Market & Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 11-5 | Outdoor Structures Applications for Lumber by Market & Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 11-6 | Other Outdoor & Nonbuilding Lumber Demand by Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 11-7 | Landscaping & Outdoor Lumber Demand by Product, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 11-8 | Landscaping & Outdoor Lumber Demand by Region, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

12. Regional Trends

Table 12-1 | Lumber Demand by Region, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 12-2 | Northeast: Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 12-3 | Midwest: Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 12-4 | South: Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

Table 12-5 | West: Lumber Demand by Application, 2010 - 2030 (million board feet)

13. Industry Structure

Table 13-1 | Lumber Sales by Company, 2020 (million dollars)

Table 13-2 | US Lumber Production Capacity, 2020: Leading Suppliers (million board feet)

Table 13-3 | Selected Mergers & Acquisitions

Table 13-4 | Selected Industry Participants

14. Appendix

Table 14-1 | Study Scope: US Geographic Regions & Subregions

Table 14-2 | Relevant Industry Codes

Table 14-3 | Relevant HS Codes

Table 14-4 | Abbreviations & Acronyms Used in Study

Table 14-5 | Macroeconomic Indicators, 2010 - 2030 (billion 2012 dollars)

Table 14-6 | Population & Households, 2010 - 2030 (million persons)

Table 14-7 | Personal Consumption Expenditures, 2010 - 2030 (billion 2012 dollars)

Table 14-8 | Consumer Financing Environment, 2010 - 2020

Table 14-9 | Building Construction Expenditures, 2010 - 2030 (billion 2012 dollars & billion dollars)

Table 14-10 | Residential Building Construction Expenditures, 2010 - 2030 (billion 2012 dollars & billion dollars)

Table 14-11 | New Housing Indicators, 2010 - 2030

Table 14-12 | Housing Stock by Type, 2010 - 2030 (million units)

Table 14-13 | Residential Improvement & Repair Expenditures, 2010 - 2030 (billion 2012 dollars & billion dollars)

Table 14-14 | Commercial Building Construction Expenditures, 2010 - 2030 (billion 2012 dollars & billion dollars)

Table 14-15 | Commercial Building Stock by Type, 2010 - 2030 (billion 2012 dollars)

Table 14-16 | Commercial Building Improvement & Repair Expenditures, 2010 - 2030 (billion 2012 dollars & billion dollars)

Table 14-17 | Nonbuilding Construction Expenditures, 2010 - 2030 (billion 2012 dollars & billion dollars)

Table 14-18 | Manufacturers' Shipments, 2010 - 2030 (billion 2012 dollars & billion dollars)


List of Figures

1. Executive Summary

Figure 1-1 | US Lumber Market

2. COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 2-1 | Annual Lumber Demand & Pricing, 2015 - 2025 (million dollars & dollars per board foot)

3. Overview

Figure 3-1 | Lumber Demand, 2000 - 2020 (million board feet)

Figure 3-2 | Lumber Imports: Leading Sources, 2010 - 2020 (million board feet)

Figure 3-3 | Lumber Exports: Leading Destinations, 2010 - 2020 (million dollars)

Figure 3-4 | Lumber Pricing, 2010 - 2025 (dollars per board foot)

4. Construction Market

Figure 4-1 | Key Lumber Uses in the Construction Market

5. Industrial & Commercial Markets

Figure 5-1 | Key Lumber Uses in Industrial & Commercial Markets

6. Solid Wood Lumber

Figure 6-1 | Solid Wood Lumber Market Share by Company, 2020 (billion dollars)

8. Structural & Framing Lumber

Figure 8-1 | Key Lumber Uses in the Structural & Framing Lumber Market

Figure 8-2 |Structural & Framing Lumber vs. Competitive Products: Comparative Growth, 2020 - 2025 (% CAGR)

9. Exterior Finish Lumber

Figure 9-1 | Key Lumber Uses in the Exterior Finish Lumber Products Market

Figure 9-2 | Exterior Finish Lumber Demand, 2000 - 2025 (million board feet)

Figure 9-3 | Exterior Finish Lumber & Competitive Products: Comparative Growth, 2020 - 2025 (% CAGR)

10. Interior Finish Lumber

Figure 10-1 | Key Lumber Uses in the Interior Finish Lumber Products Market

Figure 10-2 | Interior Finish Lumber & Competitive Products: Comparative Growth, 2020 - 2025 (% CAGR)

11. Landscaping & Outdoor Lumber

Figure 11-1 | Key Lumber Uses in the Landscaping & Outdoor Market

Figure 11-2 | Landscaping & Outdoor Lumber & Competitive Products: Comparative Growth, 2020 - 2025 (% CAGR)

13. Industry Structure

Figure 13-1 | Lumber Market Share by Company, 2020 (billion dollars)

Figure 13-2 | Lumber Market Leading Supplier, 2020

Figure 13-3 | Lumber Market Second Leading Supplier, 2020

Figure 13-4 | Lumber Market Third Leading Supplier, 2020

Figure 13-5 | Lumber Market Fourth Leading Supplier, 2020

Figure 13-6 | Lumber Market Fifth Leading Supplier, 2020


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