by Corinne Gangloff
July 17, 2020
Cleveland, OH, July 17, 2020 — Demand for dough, dry pasta, and tortillas is forecast to advance 3.1% per year in nominal terms through 2024, according to Dough, Dry Pasta, & Tortillas: United States, a report recently released by Freedonia Focus Reports. Suppliers will benefit from population growth, including in the Hispanic cohort, and disposable personal income gains. While demand for prepared foods from foodservice establishments will be stifled in the near term as restaurants remain closed, a return to trend is expected through 2024, as consumers will continue to place value on the convenience and entertainment of dining out. Furthermore, a preference by some consumers for higher-value niche products, such as gluten-free pasta, will boost gains in dollar terms. Other niche trends relevant to flour-based foods such as those in this report include marketing products that feature high-protein, heritage or ancient grain, and pulse flour. Competition from other foods, and the related popularity of diets designed to reduce carbohydrate intake, will prevent stronger gains.
Demand for dough, dry pasta, and tortillas is set to expand 5.8% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Gains will be entirely concentrated in the dry pasta segment, which is expected to offset declines in the dough and tortillas segments. Demand for pasta is expected to benefit from the ensuing economic decline, which will cause consumers impacted by job losses to flock to inexpensive, nutritious, and filling foods. In the tortillas and dough segments, suppliers benefited from consumers stockpiling basic necessities in March and April. Consumers weary of cooking at home will continue to use food delivery, which is expected to maintain foodservice spending for dough used to make items such as pizza. Increased consumer interest in baking has also boosted retail sales of cookie and bread doughs. However, closure and social distancing restrictions will reduce demand for dough, pasta, and tortillas from businesses and institutions such as hospitals, hotels, restaurants, and schools. Job losses and disposable income declines will shift the product mix toward low-cost items, hampering demand in value terms.
These and other key insights are featured in Dough, Dry Pasta, & Tortillas: United States. This report forecasts to 2024 US dough, tortillas, and dry pasta demand and shipments in nominal US dollars at the manufacturer level. Total demand and shipments are segmented by product in terms of:
To illustrate historical trends, total demand, total shipments, the various segments, and trade are provided in annual series from 2009 to 2019.
Dough manufactured in a factory for eventual transformation by a franchise (e.g., pizza franchisee purchasing dough from franchisor’s factories) or sold to independent businesses or consumers for eventual incorporation in a food product is included in the scope of this report. However, frozen pizzas are excluded from the scope of this report, as are pizza and other dough types made in factories, bakeries, and on the premises of retail locations for immediate transformation into a finished product. Also excluded are tortilla chips and strips. Re-exports of dough, dry pasta, and tortillas are excluded from demand and trade figures.
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