U.S. PreK-12 Enrollment Faces Major Shifts Amid Demographic and Policy Changes

ROCKVILLE, MD — March 27, 2025 — Simba Information’s report PreK-12 Enrollment and Demographics, 2025-2026 delivers an in-depth, data-driven examination of how evolving student demographics and educational preferences are impacting the U.S. education system. Public school enrollments have stabilized at lower levels post-pandemic — alongside the rise of alternative schooling models, such as charter schools, microschools, and homeschooling — signaling a long-term transformation in the sector.

This report provides critical insights into the factors influencing these trends, equipping education providers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders with the knowledge needed to anticipate future shifts and adapt their strategies accordingly.

Public school enrollment has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, largely due to declining birth rates, increased parental preference for alternative education models, and economic pressures impacting school funding. The U.S. birth rate has steadily declined, particularly affecting early childhood and elementary school enrollments. In addition, the rise of school choice programs, charter schools, and homeschooling has reshaped traditional public school enrollment patterns, with charter school attendance increasing by nearly 400,000 students over the past five years. Meanwhile, economic hardship continues to impact student populations, with more than half of public school students qualifying for free or reduced-price lunches and chronic absenteeism rates increasing significantly.

Key Findings

• Public School Enrollment Remains Below Pre-Pandemic Levels – In fall 2023, public school enrollment stood at 49.5 million, reflecting a 2.5% decline since 2019. Although some students have returned post-pandemic, enrollment has yet to recover fully.
• Declining Birth Rates Drive Enrollment Shifts – PreK-8 enrollment has declined by 4.5% from 2019 to 2023 due to lower birth rates, which are projected to continue affecting enrollment levels through the next decade.
• School Choice Reshapes the Market – Charter school enrollments have increased by nearly 400,000 students in the past five years, raising their market share to 7%. Homeschooling and microschools continue to gain popularity as parents seek more customized education solutions.
• Demographic Trends Reflect Shifts in Student Populations – Hispanic student enrollment has increased from 12.5 million to 14.6 million over the past decade, leading to a rise in English Learner (EL) students. Meanwhile, White student enrollment continues to decline.
• Economic Challenges Put Pressure on Public School Funding – Over 53% of public school students qualify for free or reduced-price lunches, indicating increased economic hardship among families. Additionally, chronic absenteeism has surged to affect nearly 19% of students in the 2023-24 school year.

As enrollment declines are projected to continue through 2031, school districts will need to adjust funding structures, consolidate resources, and develop innovative strategies to sustain public education.

For more details and access to the full report, visit: https://www.freedoniagroup.com/simba-information/prek-12-enrollment-and-demographics

About Simba Information 

Simba Information, a part of The Freedonia Group, is the leading authority of strategic intelligence for EdTech companies and other producers of instructional materials for K-12 and higher education. The company’s extensive information network delivers thoughtful, objective perspectives on the people, events, and alliances shaping the industry. In addition, Simba Information assists clients and the press with analysis of education industry trends. Reports can be purchased at freedoniagroup.com/simba-information. 

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