College Course Materials Trends and Outlook 2020-2022

Report Overview

College Course Materials Trends and Outlook 2020-2022 is now available and focuses on the trends that built up steam in 2019 that are likely to persist into the next several years. The report provides the outlook for the higher education publishing industry and sales segment projections through 2022. The report aligns with State of College Course Materials 2018—2019, which became available in September 2019 and focuses on two main areas: the current market landscape and the competitive environment for publishers and distributors of instructional resources for college programs.

Key Trends to Watch

Among the trends Simba explores in College Course Materials Trends and Outlook 2020-2022 and anticipates will take hold over the next several years are:

• Continued role of affordability as a driver in uptake of course materials
• Persistence of demand for some course materials in print
• Growing acceptance among faculty of OER
• Growth of short-term courses with credentials not degree credits
• Growing role for AI amid growing focus on successful student completion
• A 3.2% compound annual decline in sales of new course materials through 2022 with growth in digital, especially etextbooks, and continued double-digit decline in print.

In 2019, it seemed that disruption in the higher education space accelerated. Among the headlines was the potential merger of two of the largest traditional publishers of course materials—Cengage and McGraw-Hill Education—as they seek to improve their chances of surviving the disruption and forging a viable path forward in the changing market.

Course materials providers stepped up new approaches to how they get those course materials to market, but it remains unclear whether students will embrace these new distribution models, particularly inclusive access, which student groups have descried as monopolistic, price controlling and removing choice from students.

College Course Materials Trends & Outlook 2020-2022 focuses on trends building steam in 2019 that are likely to persist and shape the college market and the industry that serves it over the next several years. This report concludes with an outlook for the higher education course materials industry and sales segment projections through 2022.

Simba provides both sizing and context to the market segments of new course materials—new textbooks (print), digital media (including etextbooks)—and used books.

In sizing the market segments for this report, Simba follows the procedure it established in 2015. Simba uses the market size for new course materials as provided by sales figures from the Association of American Publishers. Simba further breaks down that segment into new print textbooks and digital materials. Those breakdowns are Simba’s own estimates based on its ongoing research in the area of instructional materials in higher education.

Simba’s segment projections are its own and are reached based on several factors, including enrollment patterns, trends in student preferences for study materials and buying habits, and new-edition (or front list) publishing cycles.

Additionally, Simba tapped other third-party resources, and their contributions are cited throughout the report. Among those sources are: the American Council on Education, the U.S. Department of Education, the National Association of State Budget Officers, the Education Commission of the States, the American Association of State Colleges and Universities, the Campus Computing Project, the National Association of College Stores, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, and the U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics.