by Freedonia Focus Reports Team
May 25, 2023
Rising use of hybrid/electric vehicles will further weigh on demand
Cleveland, OH, May 23, 2023 — US consumption of refined petroleum products is forecast to see minimal annual declines in volume terms through 2027, according to Refined Petroleum Products: United States, a report recently released by Freedonia Focus Reports. Decreases will largely reflect the increasing fuel efficiency of the US motor vehicle park. Expanding use of public transport, alongside increasing use of hybrid and electric vehicles, is also expected to weigh on demand. Modest advances in the number of motor vehicles in use, as well as growing exports, will prevent serious declines.
Consumption is expected to experience minimal growth in 2023, driven by increasing jet fuel consumption, while slight losses in the gasoline and distillate fuel segment will prevent serious gains. Gains in jet fuel consumption will be supported by increasing business travel and retail sales, including e-commerce sales. Losses in the gasoline and distillate fuel segments will be the result of the increasing fuel efficiency of and the growing penetration of electric vehicles into the US motor vehicle park.
US output of refined petroleum products is projected to total 6.7 billion barrels in 2027, representing average annual declines of less than 1.0% from 7.0 billion barrels in 2022. Losses will be attributed to domestic constraints, as US consumption levels of gasoline, the dominant demand segment, are forecast to decline. However, increasing domestic crude oil production from shale – also known as "tight oil" – over the forecast period will benefit US petroleum refiners as US exports of gasoline, petroleum coke, and jet fuel tap into advances in global demand.
These and other key insights are featured in Refined Petroleum Products: United States. This report forecasts to 2023 and 2027 US refined petroleum products consumption and production in barrels at the refiner level. Total consumption and production are segmented by type in terms of:
To illustrate historical trends, total consumption, total production, the various segments, and trade are provided in annual series from 2012 to 2022.
This report encompasses finished petroleum products manufactured at petroleum refining facilities via the processing of crude oil and other liquids. Hydrocarbons and other liquids separated at natural gas plants, such as liquefied petroleum gases and pentanes plus, are excluded from the scope of this report. Finished motor gasoline blends containing up to 10% ethanol content are included; blends with greater than 10% ethanol are not. Reported figures represent the volume of finished products, with blending components not considered separately. Re-exports of refined petroleum products are excluded from consumption and trade figures.
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