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Post-Lockdown Enrollments Lag Leading to Short-term and Long-term Enrollment Concerns
Rockville, Md.- March 16, 2023., US public school enrollment dropped by 1.3 million students to 49.5 million during the two years from fall 2019 to fall 2021, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Enrollment fell by historic amounts (down 3%) during the 2019-2020 school year, the first year of the pandemic, the biggest decline since 1943. Lower grades were impacted the most, with enrollments falling 13 percentage points for 3- to 4-year-olds, according to NCES, and 6 percentage points for 5-year-olds.
While there has been a comeback since the pandemic, enrollment levels in the fall of the 2021-2022 school year remained lower than for the last pre-pandemic fall, during the year of 2019-2020. Preliminary state data for 2022-2023 suggests that trend will continue.
These are two of the major findings from Simba Information’s just published report
PreK-12 Enrollment and Demographics 2023-2024
Pandemic-Led Impacts
The continued lower enrollments in public schools—with signs that the trend has continued into the 2022-2023 school year-is partly due to reasons spurred by the pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, total public-school enrollment had been increasing for the decade from fall 2009 to fall 2019.
There was also a move to religious or other private schools, home schooling, virtual schools, or other alternatives that happened during the pandemic and while some students have come back to public school post-lockdown, more than expected are staying in their new educational environment.
There was also a move to religious or other private schools, home schooling, virtual schools, or other alternatives that happened during the pandemic and while some students have come back to public school post-lockdown, more than expected are staying in their new educational environment.
There was also a move to religious or other private schools, home schooling, virtual schools, or other alternatives that happened during the pandemic and while some students have come back to public school post-lockdown, more than expected are staying in their new educational environment.
Longer-Term Trends
There are also other longer-term trends that make a full recovery to pre-pandemic numbers unlikely. Declining birth rates, one of the most important determinants of public-school enrollments, are one major factor. There is also parental dissatisfaction with public schools—especially but not exclusively in urban areas—due to falling test scores, too much testing, political beliefs, behavior issues that negatively impact learning, safety fears, or any number of other reasons. This dissatisfaction existed prior to the pandemic, although the lockdowns exacerbated many of them.
In June 2022, a survey from Bellwether Education Partners found that 65% of parents were concerned about their children’s progress in academics, and 58% were concerned about the mental health and emotional well-being of their students. These are some of the reasons for their transition to home schooling, tutoring, or learning pods, the study said.
Other polls have shown that between 25% and 50% of parents are dissatisfied with their children’s education, although the reasons for that frustration vary.
Some students disappeared from the educational system entirely, whereabouts unknown. According to a February 2023 study of enrollment declines in 21 states, more than a third of the enrollment losses in public schools cannot be explained by reasons such as demographic change, increased enrollments in private schools and home schooling, or the other reasons discussed above.
In all, the study estimated that more than 400,000 former public-school students remained unaccounted for in the 2021-2022 school year; in California, about half, or 150,000, are unaccounted for.
Permanent Impacts
Enrollment is tied to funding, and several districts around the country are closing or considering the closure of school buildings to save costs short-term and position themselves for lower enrollments long-term.
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