Education Publishing Faces New Pressures as 2025 US Tariffs Expand

The Trump administration’s newly implemented 2025 tariff expansion marks a pivotal moment for the US education and professional publishing sectors. Unless these tariffs change, their ripple effects will extend far beyond customs offices—reaching into classrooms, procurement teams, and the budgets of school districts, colleges, and credentialing bodies. For companies reliant on cross-border supply chains, the stakes are high: tariffs can disrupt sourcing, delay production cycles, and raise the cost of every printed page.

While the full impact is still unfolding, past tariff waves have shown how quickly disruption can spread. Previous measures strained textbook imports, slowed adoption timelines, and accelerated the shift to digital across PreK–12, higher education, and professional markets. Today’s policy landscape could magnify those challenges, particularly as publishers already contend with inflation, workforce shortages, and increasing demand for inclusive, adaptive materials.

At Simba Information, we help education market stakeholders make sense of complex, shifting policy environments. Our role is not only to identify risks but to highlight strategies for resilience. This moment isn’t just about trade policy—it’s about equitable access to educational materials, rising textbook costs, and the operational stability of an industry that supports everything from PreK readiness to higher education outcomes and workforce development.

As publishers and institutions recalibrate, Simba continues to monitor the evolving relationship between trade policy and education equity—because even minor disruptions in access can have long-term consequences for learning, student success, and institutional growth.

New US Tariff Policy Impacts Global Education Supply Chains

The administration’s new tariff policy includes:

• 25% tariffs on textbook and paper imports from Canada and Mexico
• 10% on all education-related imports from China (in addition to existing duties)
• 10% blanket tariffs on most foreign goods, including printed learning materials
• Up to 34% on selected countries, including China, Japan, and the EU

Books, printing paper, aluminum lithographic plates, and instructional aids are all within scope. For education publishers and curriculum providers relying on international suppliers for textbooks, PreK–12 workbooks, and professional credentialing guides, this marks a possible return to the market instability experienced during 2019–2020—potentially at a greater scale.

While the full effects of the 2025 tariffs are still emerging, Simba’s past reporting offers valuable context. In Q2 2020, textbook exports dropped 39.5% year-over-year, while imports fell by nearly 30%—a decline attributed to the combined impact of pandemic-era logistics, tariffs, and widespread school closures that disrupted procurement and distribution cycles. In today’s tighter print economy, tariffs alone could drive similar or even more severe disruptions.

Historical Data Signals Future Disruption in the Education Publishing Market

In 2019, US textbook imports from China dropped to $15.3 million—down from $21.2 million the prior year—following the inclusion of educational books in late-stage tariffs. Simba’s analysis warned that these cost pressures could trigger delayed textbook adoption cycles and shrinking district budgets.

In 2025, the risks are strikingly similar:

• The US still imports the majority of its uncoated printing paper from Canada.
• A substantial portion of PreK–12, dual-language, and literacy print runs are produced in Mexico and China.
• Textbook publishers rely on high-volume print capacity for illustrated materials—categories most affected by input cost inflation.

If patterns from 2019–2020 repeat, stakeholders should expect:

• Delayed new curriculum adoptions as school systems await price stabilization
• Cutbacks on supplemental instructional materials
• Increased reliance on outdated content or reused editions
• Reduced export activity for US-published learning content

Key Question: How Will Tariffs Affect Education Resources?

Publishers, distributors, and institutional buyers are now reevaluating:

• Whether education publishing costs will rise sharply by midyear
• How tariff retaliation could limit access to international markets
• Whether procurement strategies can adapt through early contracting or bundling

Even without post-implementation data, Simba anticipates:

• Increased textbook production costs
• Longer timelines for new textbook deliveries
• Greater urgency for digital-first and hybrid learning models

McGraw Hill’s 2020 shift to 72% digital billings and Scholastic’s 23% increase in education segment revenue underscore the viability of platform-based distribution. However, reliance on physical materials remains strong in rural school systems, community colleges, and adult correctional education programs—segments least equipped to absorb cost spikes.

How Publishers Are Responding to 2025 Trade Pressures

Simba’s coverage, supported by recent financial reporting, indicates that publishers and adjacent industries are beginning to respond to the 2025 tariff expansion through strategic adjustments.

Early actions include:

• Restructuring print partnerships to reduce reliance on countries facing high tariffs. For example, publishers with overseas print operations—particularly in China—are reassessing vendor relationships and exploring alternative production locations.
• Exploring contingency plans for domestic sourcing, a trend mirrored in related industries. HP Inc., for instance, announced it expects over 90% of its products sold in North America to be manufactured outside China by the end of fiscal 2025.
• Revising print contracts to limit long-term tariff exposure, particularly among global publishers reliant on imported parts and materials for US printing operations.
• Reevaluating the cost-benefit of print vs. digital formats, as digital media offers faster, more tariff-resilient alternatives to print production. This shift continues to gain momentum amid expected supply chain pressures.

Industry advocates are also pushing for exemptions on educational materials, arguing that books and instructional content should not be subject to punitive trade policy.

Simba is closely tracking:

• The effect of tariffs on textbook prices and education budgets
• Publisher earnings and print sourcing strategy shifts
• Changing textbook adoption timelines at the state and district levels

Education Stakeholders Must Prepare for Trade-Driven Volatility

The 2025 US tariff expansion has only just begun—but its consequences for the education publishing market are already foreseeable. Rising textbook costs, disrupted international partnerships, and delays in content access are all likely outcomes based on previous data and current conditions.

Simba Information remains committed to providing education publishing leaders, content creators, and institutional buyers with the data-backed insights they need to navigate tariff-related uncertainty. With a combination of current market tracking and historical trend analysis, we help stakeholders stay informed and prepared.

Where to Learn More

For more information, be sure to read Simba Information’s bi-monthly newsletter Education Market Advisor. Subscribe to our blog using the blue button on the bottom right to easily access more articles like this in the future.

About the blogger: Martha Scharping is the Education Analyst and Writer for Simba Information, the leading authority of strategic intelligence for EdTech companies and other producers of instructional materials for K-12 and higher education.