Pandemic Baby Boom…or Baby Bust?

Initially, many thought that stay-at-home orders and boredom would trigger a mini baby boom. For some couples, that has been the case…particularly among those who weren’t overwhelmed by the increased care responsibilities that the pandemic created for many families.

However, overall, there is evidence of a larger-scale baby bust, as

• couples unable to celebrate how they would like delayed marriages
• unemployment left families feeling too financially unstable to support a larger family
• couples were overwhelmed by supervising home school with their kids while they tried to get their own work done
• feelings of pandemic dread left families feeling less optimistic about the future and less open to expanding their families

This could have lasting effects on the global economy, particularly if it continues. Short term effects obviously include reduced demand for baby products from wipes and diapers to food, clothing, toys, and furniture. Longer term, reduced birth rates – particularly in areas such as the EU and Japan that have struggled to keep their birthrates up enough to sustain population levels – could lead to additional aging of the population, with fewer workers to support those aging out of the workforce.

The Freedonia Group Consensus Economic Indicators show a 0.7% reduction in births in the US between 2019 and 2020, a continuation of the general trend of the past decade. However, the large millennial generation is expected to support a return to growth in the number of births through 2025, even as overall population growth in the US – powered by immigration – continues to outpace gains in the number of births through the same period.  

For more information and discussion of opportunities, see The Freedonia Group’s extensive collection of off-the-shelf research. Freedonia also offers a catalog of COVID-19 Economic Impact reports, which highlight how various industries are responding to the current crisis with a comparison to recent recessions. Freedonia Custom Research is also available for questions requiring tailored market intelligence.