Age and Number of Vehicles in Use Promote Aftermarket Demand
Gains for North American aftermarket sales of automotive engine, transmission, and drivetrain components will be fueled by:
• increases in the number and age of the light vehicle park in the region
• a rising number of electronic parts in powertrain systems, which increases their complexity and raises per-unit replacement costs
• growth in the average number of miles driven due to relatively low gasoline prices, rising personal income levels, and higher levels of employment
Market advances, however, will be limited by technological improvements that are increasing the longevity of powertrain products, many of which are designed to last the lifetime of the vehicle, reducing average replacement rates.
Key Findings in the Automotive Aftermarket for Powertrain Components Study
Mexico to see strongest growth, US largest growth through 2021
Through 2021, aftermarket powertrain demand in Mexico will expand at the fastest rate, albeit from a relatively small base. Factors buoying demand in Mexico include:
• the advanced age of much of the country’s light vehicle park, increasing the likelihood that long-lasting powertrain components will need to be repaired or replaced
• its hot climate, which can lead to vehicle overheating and powertrain component damage
• poor road conditions in many areas, increasing powertrain wear and tear
Nevertheless, a preference in the country for standard transmission vehicles, which are more economical to repair, will restrain overall sales advances. In addition, the 2017 deregulation of gasoline prices in Mexico will raise the cost of gasoline by as much as 20%, which will likely reduce the average number of miles driven per vehicle and associated powertrain product aftermarket demand.
Canada will record the next fastest market advances, supported by above average growth in the number of light vehicles in use. The rate of expansion for aftermarket powertrain demand in the US will lag that for Mexico and Canada, but the US will account for the lion’s share of all North American sales advances through 2021 in value terms due to its huge light vehicle park and higher automotive accident rates.
Transmissions & Parts dominate
Transmissions and parts accounted for the largest single share of regional automotive aftermarket powertrain demand in 2016. Over the past decade, technological improvements in transmission and part designs have improved product durability, reducing the frequency of replacement. Engines and parts and drivetrain components comprised smaller shares of the North American powertrain aftermarket in 2016.
This study presents historical demand data (2006, 2011 and 2016) and forecasts (2021 and 2026) by product category (transmissions & parts, engines & parts, and drivetrain components), country (US, Canada, Mexico), and performer (professional and consumer/DIY). The study also evaluates company market share and competitive analysis on industry competitors including Federal-Mogul, GKN, GM, Jasper Engines & Transmissions, Schaeffler, ZF Friedrichshafen.