This study examines global supply and demand for diesel engines. Historical data (2008, 2013, and 2018) and forecasts for 2023 are provided for diesel engine demand by product and market, net exports, and shipments for major countries. Ten-year historical demand totals are also presented by country in both US dollars and local currency.
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Diesel engines are segmented into:
complete engines, including diesel, semi-diesel, dual-fuel, and all other compression ignition engines
parts, including those used in both engine rebuilding and routine repair; specific parts include crankshafts, engine blocks, heads and cylinders, injection systems, and turbochargers, among others
Diesel engine demand can also be categorized by market. The primary markets for diesel engines are:
motor vehicles, including light, medium, and heavy vehicles
off-road equipment, including agriculture, construction, forestry, and mining equipment
other mobile equipment, including marine, railroad, and aerospace equipment and motorcycles
stationary equipment, including generator sets and immobile industrial equipment
Associated external engine products like fuel handling systems, storage tanks, and exhaust systems are not included in the scope of this study.
Demand by product and market is presented in dollars and is shown at the manufacturers’ level and excludes distributor and retailer markups.
Global demand for diesel engines is expected to increase 4.2% per year through 2023 to $244 billion, accelerating from sluggish gains recorded between 2013 and 2018. A projected rebound in off-road industries – primarily agriculture, construction and mining – will result in a strong increase in equipment investment, boosting associated diesel engine sales. Increasingly stringent and recently implemented emission standards will also result in more efficient and more expensive, diesel engines being introduced, further contributing to value gains.
However, even faster gains will be prevented by a continued shift away from diesel automobiles.
Key Findings in the
Global Diesel Engines Study:
Motor Vehicles to Remain the Largest Market, but Growth Prospects Will Be Varied
Motor vehicles will remain the largest diesel engine using market by far, due chiefly to the prevalence of these engines in medium and heavy vehicles. A growing need for freight transportation in most areas of the world will continue to result in rising production of heavy trucks.
However, market segments gains will be hindered to some extent by the lasting backlash of the 2015 diesel emissions controversy and a trend toward electric vehicles at the expense of diesel vehicles. Nevertheless, opportunities for growth in light vehicles will arise in light trucks and SUVs, which will be more likely to have a diesel engine installed than light cars.
Off-Road Equipment to Register the Fastest Increases in Diesel Engine Demand Through 2023
Off-road equipment will register the fastest gains of any market segment through 2023, with growth be supported by a number of factors:
rising construction activity in nearly all global markets
a rebound in commodity prices that will boost mining activity
ongoing need for farming equipment to meet growing food needs
Each of these factors are expected to stimulate production of associated off-road equipment, and the need for diesel engines will increase accordingly. Recent and future emissions regulations will also impact the off-road equipment segment and contribute to value gains.
The Asia/Pacific Region, Particularly China, Will Lead Additional Diesel Engine Sales
The Asia/Pacific region is home to a number of countries with low-income yet fast growing economies that are expected to post substantial gains in diesel engine sales as their transportation infrastructure, energy and power generation, and off-road equipment industries develop. China, which is home to the world’s largest motor vehicle and off-road equipment producing industries, will supply much of the equipment needed in the region and account for a significant share of regional diesel engine supply.
This Freedonia industry study analyzes the $198.7 billion global diesel engine industry. It presents historical demand data (2008, 2013, and 2018) and forecasts (2023) by product (complete engines, parts) and market (motor vehicles, off-road equipment, other mobile equipment, and stationary equipment). The study also evaluates company market share and competitive analysis on industry competitors including BMW, Bosch, Caterpillar, Cummins, Daimler, Deere, Delphi Technologies, Komatsu, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Weichai Power.