by Freedonia Focus Reports Team
December 21, 2023
Expanding export opportunities projected to stave off further production
Cleveland, OH, December 21, 2023 — Coal production in the US is forecast to decline 7.8% yearly in volume terms through 2027, according to Coal: United States, a report recently released by Freedonia Focus Reports. Renewables are expected to continue capturing share from coal in the electricity generation market, restraining coal demand and, by extension, production. Going forward, stiff competition from natural gas will also restrain advances in output; natural gas overtook coal in the electricity generation market for the first time in 2016 and remained the dominant source through the rest of the historical period. In addition, the EPA either has released or is planning to release several rules that will hinder coal plant activity if fully implemented.
US demand for coal is forecast to decrease 7.4% annually in volume terms through 2027. Losses will be driven by continued shifts to alternative energy sources. In 2023, demand is projected to drop 19% as the post-pandemic boost continues to wane and natural gas prices return to the lower levels of the pre-pandemic period. Operators of coal-fired plants have resisted clean coal technologies and less environmentally harmful ranks of coal, due to the associated higher operating costs. In addition, public support for clean coal has been restrained by its cold reception among environmental groups. Environmentalists fear clean coal does not sufficiently ameliorate the damaging aspects of coal emissions to warrant the “clean” moniker. Furthermore, the technology is economically unattractive and often ineffective. The retrofitting or replacement of coal-burning plants with natural gas or biomass-powered technologies has further limited the domestic consumption of coal, as the conversion of existing facilities can be less expensive than installing and maintaining the emissions control systems necessary to comply with environmental regulations.
These and other key insights are featured in Coal: United States. This report provides annual forecasts for 2023 to 2027 for US coal production and demand in short tons. Total production is segmented by rank in terms of:
Total demand is segmented by market as follows:
To illustrate historical trends, total production, total demand, the various segments, and trade are provided in annual series from 2012 to 2022.
Charcoal production and demand are excluded from the scope of this report, as charcoal is a product that can be made from wood, peat, coal, or other materials in a separate production process. Throughout this report, measures in tons refer to short tons. Re-exports of coal are excluded from demand and trade figures.
More information about the report is available at:
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