Report Overview
Featuring 99 tables and 128 figures – now available in Excel and Powerpoint! Developing Countries to Lead the Charge for Automotive Lubricants Economic growth in developing countries will lead to increases in car ownership, an increase in commercial vehicle usage, and heightened construction activity, all of which will spur an increase in lubricant demand.
Key Findings in the Global Automotive Lubricants Study:
Asia/Pacific to expand its Dominance over the Global Market Demand for automotive lubricants in the Asia/Pacific region, which was responsible for 42% of global sales in 2016, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.2% through 2021. This growth will be led by China and India, the region’s two largest markets and two of the three largest markets in the world. Rising middle classes in both countries will lead to higher vehicle ownership rates, which will boost demand for engine oils in both countries. Increased construction activity and mechanization levels in the region’s agriculture will boost demand in off-highway equipment applications.
Declining Sales in the Developed World Overall sales for automotive lubricants is forecast to decline in developed countries, including the United States, Japan, and Western Europe. Although the vehicle parks are expected to grow, increasing drain intervals will lead to fewer oil changes per year, resulting in a drop in demand.
Synthetics to Gain Market Share Demand for synthetic automotive lubricants is expected to grow 6.7% per year through 2021, much faster than overall automotive lubricants. Growth is expected in every region, with the fastest coming in Asia/Pacific. Despite costing more than their conventional counterparts, synthetics offer increased fuel economy, which is attractive to consumers and governments as they try to limit vehicle emissions.
Study Coverage
This industry study presents historical demand data (2006, 2011, and 2016) and forecasts for 2021 by product class (engine oils, transmission fluids, hydraulic fluids, gear oils, greases), market (light vehicle, medium and heavy trucks and buses, off-highway equipment), and formulation (conventional, synthetic, bio-based/re-refined). The study also evaluates company market share and provides analysis on leading suppliers including Shell, Exxon Mobil, BP, Chevron and Sinopec.
This study examines the global market for finished automotive lubricants by product, market, formulation, and geographic region in volume terms at the demand level (i.e., purchases made with the intent of using the product for lubrication purposes, and not as an ingredient to be used for further formulation). Historical data for 2006, 2011, and 2016 and forecasts for 2021 are presented in thousand metric tons.
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Automotive lubricant demand is segmented into the following markets:
light vehicle
medium and heavy trucks and buses
off-highway equipment
other automotive markets (motorized two and three wheelers, recreational vehicles, outdoor power equipment)
The light vehicle market encompasses all on-road vehicles containing at least four wheels and weighing less than 6350 kg (without cargo). This includes passenger cars, SUVs, vans and minivans, pick-up trucks, and small box trucks.
The medium and heavy trucks and buses market includes on-road vehicles that weigh in excess of 6350 kg (without cargo). All lubricants consumed in the operation of these vehicles – which includes garbage trucks, cement trucks, dump trucks, school buses, and city transport buses – are included in this study, even when used on an auxiliary component of the vehicle (e.g. the hydraulics used to raise the beds of garbage trucks).
Off-highway equipment includes all lubricants consumed by the construction and forestry and logging industries as well as lubricants used in the operation of motor vehicles in the agriculture and mining industries. Thus, hydraulic fluid demand numbers in this study include their purchase for transport vehicles used in the mining industry, but they do not include lubricants used for other mining equipment (e.g. shovels, long-wall hydraulic equipment, electric motors, pulley shaft bearings, idler bearings, conveyors). For agriculture, this study includes lubricants used in tractors, cultivators, and harvesters, but does not include spray oils.
The remaining markets, which are presented in this study under the header “other automotive markets”, include motorcycles, auto rickshaws, recreational vehicles – which includes RVs, ATVs, UTVs, snowmobiles, golf carts, recreational watercraft including jet skis – and outdoor power equipment, which includes lawn and garden equipment and handheld power tools, as well as equipment designed for more specific applications (e.g. snowblowers). Generators are not included in this study.
The products covered in this study include:
engine oils
transmission fluids
hydraulic fluids
gear oils
greases
The engine oils, gear oils, and greases included in this study only include their use in motor vehicles, which includes light vehicles, medium and heavy trucks and buses, off-highway equipment, motorcycles, auto rickshaws, recreational vehicles, and outdoor power equipment. Engine oils used in industrial engines and generators are not included in this study.
Hydraulic fluids include brake fluid, shock absorber fluid, power steering fluid, and oils used in the hydraulic systems of medium and heavy duty vehicles and off-highway equipment, such as the hydraulic systems on dump trucks. Hydraulic fluids used in industrial machinery are not included.
Demand is also segmented by formulation in this study. The four classifications of formulations are:
conventional
synthetic
re-refined
bio-based
Conventional lubricants include all finished automotive lubricants made from API Group I and Group II base stocks. Synthetics include all products made from API Group III, Group IV (PAOs), and Group V base stocks. It also includes lubricants whose base stocks were a mixture of Group III, Group IV, or Group V with a conventional base stock. Re-refined automotive lubricants include all products made from base oil that has been re-refined, regardless of whether the oil was originally classified as synthetic or conventional. Bio-based lubricants are all lubricants made from biological base stocks, such as vegetable oils.