As it tries to recover from the recent “box recession”, the corrugated industry is grappling with uncertainty caused by flat manufacturing output, shifting consumer behavior, rising competition from alternative packaging, and fluctuating input costs. Companies in the industry face challenges in aligning production capacity, innovating effectively, and finding growth sectors to target.
Adapting to Challenges in a Maturing & Competitive E-Commerce Market
Growth of e-commerce in the US is slowing from the double-digit levels of the past decade, presenting a potential concern for corrugated box manufacturers. Box demand and corrugated volume have been restrained by competition from flexible mailers and Ships in Own Container (SIOC) shipping, as well as box right-sizing and lightweighting.
However, e-commerce will continue to offer opportunities in a number of sectors that are still seeing strong sales increases as these growth areas often require higher value boxes. Box producers also continue to innovate to better compete with mailers and improve shipping efficiency.
Sustainability as a Catalyst for Innovation
Sustainability is no longer a value-added feature but a baseline expectation for packaging. Governments, businesses, and consumers are demanding recyclable and biodegradable solutions that reduce resource use. While this has restrained demand in some cases, it also offers opportunities for producers of corrugated boxes and folding cartons.
Box manufacturers can enhance their market standing by improving recycling efficiency, reducing carbon footprints through lightweight and more efficient product designs, and developing sustainable, high-performance coatings.
Looking Beyond Mature Core Markets for New Opportunities
A number of factors have constrained growth in many traditional markets for boxes and cartons. However, opportunities exist for innovative box packaging in a number of newer sectors including health and wellness products, specialty foods, pet products, and subscription services. Box producers need to continue to innovate to better compete with and promote sustainability advantages for paper-based packaging over plastic. The increasing development of digital printing technologies will expand opportunities by enabling faster turnaround times, greater customization and improved product appearance.
Historical Market Trends & Growth Factors
A number of factors impact demand for corrugated and paperboard boxes on a year-to-year basis, although in general trends in manufacturing output, e-commerce, and product distribution play the greatest role:
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Corrugated boxes are widely used in the shipping and storage of a wide variety of goods and for product packaging. As a result, demand is especially reliant on business-to-business and business-to-consumer commerce. In packaging applications, corrugated boxes are often used for packaging durable goods and as secondary packaging for case quantities of packaged goods.
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In contrast, folding cartons and set-up boxes are used almost entirely for packaging, with annual growth reflecting demand for the key goods packaged in these products, especially food, beverages, and pharmaceuticals.
Other factors that impact corrugated and paperboard box sales volume include:
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competition from other packaging formats, especially flexible plastic packaging
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source reduction efforts aimed at reducing the volume of packaging used
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efforts by shipping companies to reduce the number and size of boxes used
Trends in market value are determined primarily by annual changes in pricing and shifts in product mix in terms of size of boxes used and their performance or value-added features (such as coatings). Paper recycling levels and the availability of recycled paper stock can affect pricing and market value, as recycled paper is a key raw material for box production.
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic greatly increased consumer demand to have goods delivered to their homes, thus boosting volume demand for boxes. This trend largely continued through 2021 while inflation began to impact paper products and raw material costs across the board. In 2022, declines in spending on consumer goods led to diminished demand for boxes and cartons, although inflationary pressures pushed corrugated box dollar sales to all-time highs.
The reduced demand for boxes and cartons continued through much of 2023 as consumer goods spending remained relatively low amid high costs of living. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures subsided, and containerboard prices fell. In 2024, an uptick in real demand for boxes and cartons was driven by consumer goods purchases as containerboard inventory normalized.
Supply & Demand
Trade accounts for a relatively small portion of the US corrugated and paperboard box market, although trade in the containerboard used to make boxes is more significant. Because the US has sufficient forestry resources and supply of old corrugated containers (OCCs), it can produce the raw materials (virgin and recovered pulp) needed to manufacture enough boxes to meet domestic demand. Additionally, the high cost of shipping empty boxes internationally deters significant trade activity.
The US trade balance in boxes varies by product:
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The US is expected to remain a net exporter of corrugated boxes, largely due to healthy prospects for exports to its North American trade partners.
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The US is a net importer of folding cartons and set-up boxes because it often sources less expensive versions from countries with lower labor costs. These types of boxes require a more labor-intensive production process than corrugated boxes, which makes them costly to produce in the US.
Pricing & Inflation
Prices for corrugated and paperboard boxes are primarily affected by:
Since boxes are commodity products and face competition from other packaging formats, pricing is a significant competitive factor for manufacturers of these products.
Average corrugated and paperboard box prices can fluctuate significantly from year to year because of pricing variations in the pulp and paper industry, which supplies the raw materials for boxes.
In 2021 and 2022, supply chain issues and raw material inflation significantly impacted prices for packaging products across the board. Raw material costs for paper and containerboard skyrocketed alongside fuel, energy, and transportation costs. Consequently, many packaging products, including corrugated boxes, saw above average price increases before largely plateauing in 2023.
In 2024, North American containerboard prices rose steadily through much of the year as recent upticks in box demand contributed to mill backlogs. Meanwhile, the price of old corrugated containers (OCC) more than doubled from recent years due to a reduction in virgin containerboard production as OCC demand remained strong. Going forward, OCC prices are expected to stabilize as generation catches up with demand.
Through 2029, average box prices are forecast to increase 1.0% annually.
Growth in box prices will be supported by the increasing importance of innovative box designs, and value-added features on boxes – such as superior graphics and printing, retail-ready designs, and those with unique shapes – will lead to a larger presence for more expensive boxes.
Direct to Consumer (DTC) Shipping
Trends toward direct-to-consumer (DTC) shipping have a notable impact on the need for corrugated boxes used in order fulfilment and shipping. Since products are shipped individually from manufacturers or brands directly to consumers, there is a greater need for durable, protective packaging to ensure safe delivery. Corrugated boxes, known for their strength and versatility, are widely used to package and ship these goods. Unlike bulk shipments to retail stores, DTC shipping often involves smaller, customized packages, leading to higher demand for a variety of box sizes and designs.
DTC shipping involves manufacturers and brands selling products directly to customers, bypassing traditional retail channels. This model allows businesses to establish a closer relationship with consumers, often through online platforms, and gives them more control over pricing, branding, and customer experience. DTC shipping has grown significantly due to the rise of e-commerce and changing consumer preferences for convenience and personalized shopping experiences. The outlook for the DTC industry suggests continued growth, driven by advancements in digital marketing, logistics, and consumer demand for unique products, though competition and rising shipping costs could influence future developments.
Report Details
This study analyzes US demand for and production of corrugated and paperboard boxes. Historical data (2014, 2019, and 2024) and forecasts for 2029 and 2034 are presented for corrugated and paperboard box demand by product and market. Annual data for 2021 to 2028 are also presented.
Product segments discussed include:
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corrugated boxes (including solid fiber boxes)
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regular slotted containers
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full telescoping boxes
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boxes with cut-outs for display purposes
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open-top tray-style boxes
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fold-over gift boxes
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bulk bins
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display-ready retail, or retail-ready, boxes
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modular boxes
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corrugated clamshells
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standard boxes for shipping and e-commerce applications
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folding paperboard boxes (also referred to as folding cartons)
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set-up (rigid) paperboard boxes
Excluded from this study are products such as:
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aseptic and gable top cartons
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composite cans
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non folding sanitary paperboard food containers
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non-box corrugated products (e.g., displays, pizza and cake circles, partitions and edge protectors)
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paperboard backings of blister packaging
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paperboard trays and related non-box foodservice items
Market segments discussed include:
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food and beverages
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grain mill products
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meat, poultry, and seafood
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beverages
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fresh produce
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frozen foods
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bakery products
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canned foods
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dairy products
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candy and confections
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other foods (e.g., snack foods, nuts, sauces and condiments, fats and oils, coffee and tea, infant foods, sweeteners, dry soups, spices and seasonings, other dry and powdered products)
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nonfood nondurable goods
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paper and publishing
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pharmaceuticals
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rubber and plastics
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chemical products
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cosmetics and toiletries
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other nonfood nondurable goods (e.g., textiles and apparel, tobacco products, petroleum products, leather products, tape, office supplies, photographic supplies)
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durable goods
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machinery and equipment
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fabricated metal products
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glass and ceramic products
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motor vehicle parts
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furniture, lumber, and wood products
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toys and sporting goods
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silverware and jewelry
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music, entertainment, and software
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instruments (medical and analytical) and all other durable goods (e.g., photographic equipment, watches, clocks)
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nonmanufacturing
Excluded from the market scope are large-scale, online business-to-business sales, such as bulk chemicals from a chemical producer to a motor vehicle parts manufacturer.
In addition, raw material consumption is provided by type: