Global Farm Tractors

Report Overview

According to industry analyst Gleb Mytko, "Tractor sales rebounded at a double-digit annual pace in all regions in 2021, with the Africa/Mideast region, Central and South America, and Eastern Europe registering growth of more than 20%."

This Freedonia study analyzes the more than $55 billion global farm tractor market. The study provides agricultural tractor demand for 2011, 2016, and 2021, and forecasts for 2026 and 2031. We also offer annual data for all countries for the 2018-2025 period. This study also presents farm tractor demand by type (wheel tractors, crawler tractors, and pedestrian-controlled tractors) for 20 countries. Finally, it evaluates market share for the top six manufacturers worldwide, such as AGCO, Deere, and Kubota.

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Global farm tractor demand is projected to increase 7.0% annually to $77.8 billion in 2026. However, a significant portion of market value growth – particularly during the first half of the forecast period – will be mostly the result of higher prices that have resulted from high rates of inflation around the world, supply chain issues, and a chip shortage. In unit terms, demand will increase just 1.1% per year off of a relatively healthy 2021 base. Real gains are expected to grow at a faster pace in the latter part of the forecast period as the global economy continues to normalize. Growth in this period will be bolstered by:

• advances in global farming agricultural activity and rising agricultural commodity prices, leading to farm income growth
• farmers increasingly replacing aging machinery and investing in newly developed agricultural technologies as they face a variety of workforce issues (e.g., skilled operator shortages, rising wages, new protections for works)
• high levels of government support for their respective agricultural sectors, ranging from direct subsidies to farmers to programs promoting advanced farming practices to more specialized initiatives (such as a farm machinery rental schemes in India)
• government and industry initiatives designed to insulate farmers from the impact of climate change, reduce the environmental impact of farming, and promote technological innovation in the agricultural sector

Asia/Pacific, North America, & Western Europe Account for Vast Majority of Absolute Gains

The large Asia/Pacific market is projected to register the largest gains during the forecast period; multiple developing and mature markets will perform well through 2026:

• The growing use of state-of-the-art tractors – including automated, and electric and hybrid models – will be the leading driver of market gains in countries such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
• In developing nations, farmers will increasingly purchase tractors as they shift away from manual farming techniques.

Governments in countries such as China, India, and Thailand will play active roles in the development of their agricultural sectors. Multiple government and nongovernment-funded projects will promote sustainable and more advanced farming techniques, thereby generating demand for tractors. In addition, the replacement of pedestrian-controlled tractors with wheeled and crawler models will drive gains in dollar terms.

The favorable growth prospects of the mature West European and North American markets can be attributed to the significant tractor replacement needs of both regions. Farmers in Western Europe and North America invest heavily in technology because of their large financial resources and high levels of government support; consequently, they will be among the first adopters of newly developed tractors. The intensification of agricultural sector workforce issues – as well as adoption of new regional and national regulations – will drive investment in newly developed farming technologies.

Demand by Region

Through 2026, global demand for farm tractors is projected to advance 7.0% annually to $77.8 billion. The use of tractors will continue expanding swiftly in most developing regions because these machines represent the most basic type of agricultural equipment; as such, they are typically the first machines purchased by farmers because they:

• perform multiple functions
• are suitable for a wide range of applications, ranging from orchards to grain farming
• have compatibility with numerous attachments
• are available in most countries
• have long lifespans

The vast range of tractor sizes available enables farmers to purchase the model that best fits their agricultural needs and budget. Developing nations also tend to specialize in the manufacture of tractors, which guarantees the widespread availability of affordable models.
In North America, Europe, and mature Asia/Pacific markets, tractor segment gains will be bolstered by:

• their massive replacement needs
• the introduction of newly developed models, including those that automate key functions
• the incorporation of new technologies – ranging from sophisticated sensors to advanced hybrid and electric engines – which will drive up machinery prices and contribute to gains in value terms

In recent years, leading tractor manufacturers have started selling state-of-the-art models in markets that are at earlier stages of development, such as Argentina, Brazil, China, Mexico, Russia, Thailand, and Turkey. Growing concerns about a variety of workforce issues and intensifying competition from abroad will drive spending on these newly developed tractors.

Agricaltural Commodity Pricing

Changes in commodity prices, and thus farm income, are a key factor in the outlook for the global farm tractor industry. Key commodities include: 

• corn

• dairy products

• fresh vegetables

• potatoes

• rice

• soybeans

• sugar cane

• wheat

Commodity prices vary around the world, especially at the local level. However, the increasingly global scope of the agricultural industry results in prices settling around global averages.

Crop yields in a given year also affect price. Years with higher than average yields will generally result in lower prices for agricultural goods, while years when crop yields are low can drive up prices.

Fluctuations in crop prices can influence the types of crops produced in a country, as low prices for a certain crop can cause farmers to plant other, more profitable crops for future harvests. Many national governments subsidize crops and offer aid to farmers in an effort to maintain farm production, particularly for strategically important agricultural commodities. However, not all crops are subsidized nor do all nations participate in farm subsidies.

Unlike many industries, where raw material or commodity prices can result in reducing or eliminating production, agricultural commodities are essential for sustaining a healthy population, and thus many farmers continue to grow and produce crops even when prices are low. However, low crop prices do impact a farmer’s ability or willingness to invest in farm tractors – as when crop prices are low there may not be sufficient capital to purchase a new top-of-the-line tractors. In these instances, farmers may choose to repair existing tractors or purchase either lower-priced new tractors or used tractors.