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Although residential roofing demand in area terms is expected to expand only minimally to 183.8 million squares in 2025, demand in value terms is expected to climb at a rapid 8.2% annually to $15.0 billion. Strong growth in average prices will drive gains in value terms as:
The prices of petroleum and related products have increased sharply (from a low 2020 base), which will drive up the price of asphalt shingles and bituminous low-slope membranes.
Homeowners and homebuilders are choosing generally more expensive products that offer superior performance and aesthetic properties, such as laminated asphalt shingles, solar roofing, and metal roofing.
The much more modest increase in the amount of roofing actually installed is because:
Housing starts will decline from 2022 to 2025 following a significant increase in 2021 from a high 2020 base, limiting associated roofing sales growth.
Storm-related roof repair and replacement projects were high in 2020 due in part to multiple severe weather events – these roofs will generally not require additional work in the near term.
Smaller New Roofing Segment Will Account for the Larger Share of Overall Market Gains
While both new and reroofing demand will slow considerably from rates of the 2015-2020 period, new roofing – particularly construction of single-family homes – will account for about twice as many gains as reroofing. Housing starts rose sharply in 2021 from an already high 2020 base as builders took advantage of people’s desire to escape urban cores severely affected by COVID-19 and increased construction of homes in suburban and exurban areas. While housing starts will retreat from their high 2021 level by 2025, overall new housing activity will remain elevated, sustaining new roofing demand.
The reroofing market will continue to account for nearly 80% of the demand total, but growth through 2025 will be limited by the large number of older or worn roofs that were repaired or replaced in 2020 due to:
the sizable amount of home improvement activity that occurred that year
a number of severe weather events in the second half of 2020 (especially in the South) that caused widespread roof damage
Metal Roofing, Solar Roofing, & Roofing Tile Will Post the Largest Demand Increases
Metal roofing, solar roofing, and roofing tile are types of roofing products that will see the healthiest sales. Suppliers of metal roofing and roofing tile will benefit from their products’ superior resistance to severe weather events (particularly uplift caused by high winds), long product lifespans, favorable aesthetics, and ability to serve as cool roofing. Demand for solar roofing will expand at a robust rate from a small existing sales base because of California’s adoption of building codes requiring nearly all newly built and substantially renovated structures to generate as much energy as they use.
Supply & Demand
Shipments of residential roofing products are projected to climb 8.2% annually to $15 billion in 2025, an acceleration from the 2015-2020 period, when roofing product shipments rose 6.4% per year. Industry output will rise along with domestic demand, since foreign trade plays a minor role in the US residential roofing market.
Imports accounted for only 2% of US residential roofing sales in 2020, and exports accounted for 2% of US shipments in that year.
Trade in roofing materials between the US and foreign countries is limited by a number of factors, including:
the weight and bulk of most roofing products, which make shipment across long distances costly and impractical
differences in aesthetic and performance requirements between the US and other countries
regional variations in building codes and material preferences
The nation’s main trading partner for roofing products is Canada, which generally accounts for almost 70% of imports and exports in any given year.
Residential roofing products are typically sold in the same general regions of the US in which their production facilities are located. For instance, wood shingle and shake manufacturing plants are located mainly in New England and the Pacific Northwest.
While asphalt shingle manufacturers have nationwide networks of plants, asphalt shingles made at these sites are generally tailored to local markets:
Plants in the northern half of the US tend to make shingles better suited to withstand severe weather conditions.
Facilities in the southern half of the US concentrate on shingles that feature high wind resistance or meet cool roofing criteria.
Demand for roofing in the residential market is forecast to advance minimally through 2025 to 183.8 million squares, a sharp deceleration from the 2015-2020 period:
Housing starts are expected to decline from 2022 to 2025 following an increase in 2021 from a high 2020 base. However, housing starts will remain above pre-pandemic levels through 2025, supporting roofing demand in new applications.
Storm-related roof repair and replacement projects were elevated in 2020 due in part to multiple severe weather events – these roofs will generally not require additional work in the near term.
Scope & Methodology
This study analyzes US residential roofing demand by product, application (new vs. reroofing), slope (steep-slope vs. low-slope), and US geographic region. Demand is provided in both area terms (squares) and value terms (US dollars).
Roofing product demand is segmented by the following product types:
shingles, shakes, and tiles
corrugated panels and other metal roofing
bituminous roofing, which can be segmented into two systems, built-up roofing systems (BURs) and modified bitumen roofing systems (MBRs)
polymer-modified bitumen membranes, e.g., atactic polypropylene (APP) and styrene-butadiene-styrene (SBS) and other membranes
standard roofing felts
clay and porcelain
wood shingles and shakes
other small volume roofing products
composite (polymer)/synthetic shingles, shakes, and tiles
all other roofing (e.g., corrugated asphalt panels, concrete panels, plastic and rubber membranes, spray polyurethane foam(SPF), vegetative or green roofing)
Residential roofing shipments, imports, and exports are also shown at the aggregate level in dollars. Average product prices (at the manufacturers’ level) and installation costs are provided for major product types in dollars per square.
Excluded from the scope of the study are such related products as:
coatings used as repair and restorative compounds and not used as a structure’s primary roofing material
roof-mount solar panels
mopping asphalts, granules, and ballast used during the installation of bituminous roofs
prefabricated roof trusses and other structural supports
roof decking materials (e.g., plywood and other engineered wood materials, concrete, metal)
Demand for roofing is also analyzed by housing type:
Excluded from the definition of residential buildings are housing units located in a structure whose primary purpose is something other than habitation. Thus, a small living space contained in a larger retail facility would be classified as part of a retail building and not a residential building.