Food Market Outlook 2026 Report

Report Overview

Weight Loss Drugs Having Notable Impact on Consumer Preferences

The increased use of weight loss drugs can have significant effects on consumer food choices, creating opportunities for some food manufacturers and headwinds for others. Users of the drugs may eat less overall and eat less of high fat and sugary foods, as well as ultra-processed foods. Many are gravitating toward healthier food choices and increasing consumption of lean proteins and nutrient-dense foods.

Key Themes Covered in this Report:

• Increasing food prices will continue to benefit private label store brands.
• Interest in more healthy food options – such as those that are minimally processed, are a good source of fiber, and are low in sodium – continues to rise.
• Food manufacturers are targeting users of GLP-1s with specific formulations that offer health benefits.

Sales of the top 14 packaged food categories are forecast to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% from 2025 to 2030, reaching sales of $432 billion. Dollar growth will be slower through 2030 compared to 2019 to 2025 as inflation, which significantly propped up dollars over the last couple of years, continues to moderate. Dollar sales should outpace volume demand as higher prices continue for at least the next year or so. Shifting policies on tariffs and the war in Iran could affect the forecast significantly.

Food price growth increased in most categories in 2025. This reversed the trend in 2024, when price growth slowed significantly across most categories, continuing price moderation that began toward the end of 2023. Higher food prices in 2025 were caused by sticky inflation, supply disruptions (especially in beef), shortages due to adverse weather conditions and disease (cocoa), and rising trade costs from tariffs and labor shortages.

Although food price increases were not as great as those of several years ago, and increases moderated in some categories, prices generally remain high and much higher than before 2020. This after several years of surging price increases. Although wages have increased, they haven’t kept up with inflation, putting pressure on food demand, especially for lower- and middle-income consumers who have especially remained stretched financially.

Food & Beverages As a Path To Health & Wellness

Many consumers see food and beverage choices as a path to health and wellness. In fact, 88% of US adults agree that food and beverages can function as “medicine”, playing a role in preventing poor health or improving health. Agreement is even higher with the more general concept that food and beverage choices are a path to overall health and wellness, with 95% of total consumers. Both trends indicate solid market potential for food and beverage options that are designed to be or perceived to include some sort of additional wellness boost.

Weight Loss Drugs

The increased use of weight loss drugs can have significant effects on consumer food choices, creating opportunities for some food manufacturers and headwinds for others. Users of the drugs may eat less overall and eat less of high fat and sugary foods, as well as ultra-processed foods. Many are gravitating toward healthier food choices and increasing consumption of lean proteins and nutrient-dense foods. In response to shifting food needs, manufacturers are targeting users with specific formulations. For example, Danone developed Oikos Fusion yogurt drink primarily for GLP-1 users. The drink helps build and retain muscle mass and improves gut health with a blend of leucine, whey, and vitamin D.

Private Labels Still More Desirable as Prices Rise

Many consumers have reacted to higher prices by buying less, downsizing, waiting for promotions, or buying more private labels. In 2025, dollar sales of private label store brands (across all categories, not just food) increased 3.3%, higher than the 1.2% growth of national brands according to the Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA).

Food Market Outlook 2026 Report Details

Leading Companies Driving Trends in the Food Industry

Home Cooking Remains Relatively High Following Earlier Pandemic-Related Surge

Americans continue to cook more at home since eating out and takeout have become more expensive. MRI data show that the percentage of people cooking meals frequently during a given week increased slightly in 2025 to 51%. The percentage has remained relatively steady since 2021, when it increased significantly after the pandemic surge in 2020.

Data also shows that people still enjoy being creative in the kitchen, although many want quick and easy ways to prepare meals. The latter illustrates how preparing dinner at home has become an unwelcome chore for many. Food prep fatigue has grown since the start of the pandemic and inflation is pressuring food budgets. Despite this, an increasing number of people want to prepare restaurant-quality meals at home, and they want help doing so. Though challenged by inflation, many are willing to pay for products that make meal preparation convenient.

Popular items include packaged salads and kits, frozen meals and pizza, value-added meat and poultry (fresh meat and poultry sold with at least one step of preparation – marinating, cutting, seasoning, etc.), fully cooked products, deli-prepared items like rotisserie chicken, and frozen heat-and-eat products such as chicken nuggets or sausage patties.

Food Market Outlook 2026 Report Scope

This report focuses on the market for selected packaged food products sold to consumers in the United States through retail channels. All retail distribution channels are covered, including supermarkets and grocery stores, mass merchandisers and supercenters, warehouse clubs, specialty food stores, health/natural food stores, convenience stores, drugstores, dollar stores, and direct sales channels such as online and mail order. Market size data are provided at the retail sales level for 2019-2025, and projections are provided for 2025-2030.

Product categories covered in detail include:

cereal

chocolate candy

fresh bread

frozen dinners/entrees

ice cream and frozen novelties

meal and snack bars

meat and poultry

natural and specialty cheese

salty snacks

yogurt

Product categories covered on a top-line basis include:

cookies

fresh packaged salads

frozen pizza

soup