Food Market Outlook 2025: Inflation, Tariffs, the Rise of Weight Loss Medications & More

Report Overview

Changing consumer behaviors are leading to demand for food products that not only meet basic needs, but also satisfy new desires

Key themes covered in this report include:

• Direction and rate of price change and the response by value-seeking consumers
• Changing customer preferences and innovations in the better-for-you segment
• Impacts of GLP-1s and related weight-loss medications on food choice and product mix
• Trends in flavor and texture profiles from everyday food options to splurge-worthy varieties

Most major packaged food categories are mature and rely primarily on population growth, leaving food marketers with the challenge of bringing something new to the table. Opportunities abound for companies that invest in new product launches, ingredient changes, and different marketing tactics to appeal to changing consumer preferences. Still, there is an ebb and flow in some trends as the rise and sometimes recede from consumer awareness. For instance, inflation is a continuation of recent challenges since 2022. Others like sustainability and convenience are reflections of changing consumer priorities and demographics. 

Inflation-fueled higher prices are a core trend that began in 2022 and has continued to play a key role in consumer food choices and supplier offerings in product mix, marketing plans, and pricing strategies. Prices have more recently been impacted by changing tariffs on imported food and ingredients. These tariffs have even been applied to fresh food that either cannot be grown domestically or at least not in sufficient quantities to meet demand. This has led to consumers seeking value, whether that means in comparison to the same items or across grocery items with a category. Private label options seeing surges across all categories and even beyond the basics to items with trendy flavors and ingredient compositions.

The increased use of weight-loss drugs and the hype surrounding them have caused some changes in food shopping and consumption habits. GLP-1 medications such as Mounjaro, Ozempic, and Wegovy are diabetes drugs that also help users lose weight by making them feel full longer and reducing appetite. Currently, use of the medications is relatively small and limited by a variety of factors, but the market has continued to expand as some roadblocks are reduced and a growing number of consumer express openness to trying these medications. The impact of these changing choices are only beginning to be felt in larger scales, but will have effects on the retail food market for years to come. 

With a focus on growth opportunities and “what’s next” – along with bringing decades of food and beverage market perspective and analysis to the table – U.S. Food Market Outlook 2025: Inflation, Tariffs, the Rise of Weight Loss Medications, & More is packed with actionable insights about consumer trends, behavior, and motivations. This report delivers predictions and recommendations designed to guide retailers, service providers, wholesalers, food processors, packaging firms, and investors in making business decisions about the food market.

US Food Market Outlook Report Scope and Methodology

Scope

This report focuses on the market for selected packaged food products sold to consumers in the United States through retail channels. All retail distribution channels are covered, including supermarkets and grocery stores, mass merchandisers and supercenters, warehouse clubs, specialty food stores, health/natural food stores, convenience stores, drugstores, dollar stores, and direct sales channels such as online and mail order. Market size data are provided at the retail sales level for 2019-2024, and projections are provided for 2024-2029.

Product categories covered in detail include:

• cereal
• chocolate candy
• fresh bread
• frozen dinners/entrees
• ice cream and frozen novelties
• meal and snack bars
• meat and poultry
• natural and specialty cheese
• salty snacks
• yogurt

Product categories covered on a top-line basis include:

• cookies
• fresh packaged salads
• frozen pizza
• soup

Methodology

The information in this report was obtained from both primary and secondary research. Primary research included consultation with industry sources and visits to retail stores. Secondary research entailed gathering data from relevant trade, business, and government sources, as well as company promotional literature and annual reports. Estimates of market size and company performance are based on various sources, including reported revenues of product manufacturers and retailers, relevant publications, and other market research sources. The analysis in this report also draws, as a background source, on retail sales tracking data such as that which is available from Circana (formerly IRI) and Nielsen (for mass-market channels), and SPINS (for the natural channel), but is completed via in-house analysis which is informed by additional primary and secondary research and is in alignment with macroeconomic analysis from The Freedonia Group economics team. Our consumer analysis largely draws on three primary sources of data:

• The Packaged Facts National Online Consumer Survey The March 2025 panel includes 1,501 US adults (aged 18 and older) balanced to the national population on primary demographic measures such as age group, gender, geographic region, marital status, race/ethnicity, presence or absence of children in the household, and household income.
  
  Additionally, the following past versions of the survey were also used:

  • November 2024 survey (panel of 1,502 adults)

  • August 2024 survey (panel of 1,501 adults)

  • May 2024 survey (panel of 1,500 adults)

  • March 2024 survey (panel of 1,500 adults)

  • November-December 2023 survey (panel of 1,547 adults)

  • September-October 2023 survey (panel of 1,500 adults)

  • May 2023 survey (panel of 1,500 adults)

  • March 2023 survey (panel of 1,500 adults)

  • the December 2022 survey (panel of 2,000 adults)

  • November 2022 survey (panel of 2,000 adults)

  • August 2022 survey (panel of 2,000 adults)

  • May 2022 survey (panel of 1,799 adults)

  • February 2022 survey (panel of 2,000 adults)

  • November-December 2021 survey (panel of 1,500 adults)

  • October-November 2021 survey (panel of 1,690 adults)

  • August-September 2021 survey (panel of 2,000 adults)

  • June 2021 survey (panel of 2,014 adults

• The Fall 2024 MRI-Simmons National Study is a booklet-based survey with tens of thousands of respondents selected by address-based sampling to represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the US adult population (aged 18 and older). Fall surveys from prior years are also used for trending purposes.

• The International Food Information Council Foundation’s (IFIC) 2024 Food and Health Survey provides valuable insight into consumers’ perspectives on food purchasing decisions and diet and lifestyle choices. Additionally, IFIC’s 2023 Food and Health Survey is used to provide other useful information on consumer behavior.

US Food Market Outlook Report Details

Key Participants Driving Trends in Food Retail Sales