Market Shares of Electric, Hybrid and CNG/LNG Buses to Increase

Cleveland OH, December 13, 2022 – According to the new Freedonia study Global Buses, through 2026, global demand for buses is forecast to grow 8.4% annually to 549,800 units. Conventional fuel buses (diesel and gasoline powered) dominate world demand, accounting for 69% in 2021. However, the market shares of electric, hybrid, and CNG/LNG, buses are expected to increase, continuing the historical trends. Intensifying concerns about both air pollution and climate change – on the part of both governments and the public – and the growing availability of alternative fuel modes will contribute to the shift.

Electric buses:

• are much more fuel efficient and less expensive to operate than conventional product types
• have considerably lower maintenance costs
• run more quietly
• benefit from government initiatives around the world to encourage their purchase at the expense of conventional models

The use of CNG/LNG buses is expected to increase at a double-digit annual pace, supported by:

• the increasing availability of CNG/LNG buses in many markets
• additional government investment in the infrastructure that is needed for CNG/LNG buses to operate efficiently
• the development of more technologically advanced, better performing models that are more competitive with conventional, electric, and hybrid buses

Despite losing market share, diesel buses will remain the most widely used product type globally; the segment is expected to register large gains in absolute terms from 2021 to 2026. The lower price of some of the models included here will ensure significant demand for diesel buses in most developing markets. The introduction of diesel buses that offer improved performance and increased fuel efficiency will also make them more competitive relative to alternative fuel models. Finally, most smaller buses and shuttles sold globally will continue to be diesel powered because similar CNG/LNG and electric models are less cost-effective.

The gasoline bus segment is expected to underperform its counterparts during the 2021-2026 period as smaller examples around the world are replaced with transit buses and motor coaches (which are more rider-friendly and safer). Gasoline buses will also benefit less from technological innovation because many models are relatively inexpensive, and incorporating advanced technologies into them would be less cost-effective.