The State of College Course Materials; Outlook to 2027 Report

Report Overview

Shrinking Revenues, Selective Demand: Where Course Materials Still Win

The textbook market is shrinking. Demand is shifting, not disappearing.

Affordability pressure, enrollment redistribution, OER adoption, student loan reform, and AI-enabled delivery models are changing the structure of the US college course materials market. Demand is also becoming more concentrated in workforce-aligned programs and institution types with stronger enrollment stability. This report shows where demand is weakening, where it is holding, and how major publishers are adapting their platforms, pricing, and product strategies.

Key Themes Covered in this Report

• How falling student spending, OER growth, and lower-cost sourcing behaviors are changing the economics of course materials
• How student loan reform, Workforce Pell, and low-ROI program scrutiny could redirect enrollment and alter demand by field and institution type
• Why digital subscriptions, Inclusive Access, analytics, and AI-enabled platforms are becoming the central competitive battleground

Key Questions Answered in the Report

• Which institution types, student segments, and academic fields still support stronger demand for commercial course materials?
• How will federal loan caps, Graduate PLUS elimination, Workforce Pell, and program accountability rules affect publisher revenue opportunities?
• How are Pearson, Cengage, McGraw Hill, and Wiley repositioning around digital delivery, recurring revenue, AI, and institutional partnerships?

Slower Growth Gave Way to a More Pressured Market

The State of College Course Materials, 2025-2027 shows a market moving out of short-term stabilization and into a more selective, pressured environment. Postsecondary enrollment rose 1.0% in Fall 2025, led by community colleges and public four-year institutions, but freshmen enrollment was essentially flat overall and fell sharply at private for-profit institutions. Students are also concentrating more heavily in engineering, health professions, and public administration while computer and information science and several humanities fields posted declines. These shifts matter because they affect where commercial demand for course materials is likely to hold and where it is likely to weaken.

Student Spending Keeps Falling, Even as Usage Holds

Average student spending on course materials fell to $341 in the 2024-2025 academic year, roughly half the 2007-08 level. Yet students still took an average of 8.7 courses and purchased 8.2 materials, showing that the spending decline is not simply a matter of lighter course loads. It reflects a structural shift toward used books, rentals, unauthorized free access, digital alternatives, institutionally negotiated access models, and rising OER adoption. Students remain highly cost sensitive, and that behavior continues to pressure traditional textbook sales.

Digital Dominates, but the Market Is Not Stable

Digital media represented 88.3% of the college course materials market in 2025 and is expected to reach 91.1% by 2027. That does not mean the market is healthy across the board. Simba estimates that total market sales will fall from $3.24 billion in 2025 to $3.11 billion in 2026 and $2.98 billion in 2027. Print is projected to decline from $378.4 million in 2025 to $273.2 million in 2027, while digital media is also expected to soften, though at a much slower pace. Inclusive Access, subscriptions, and digitally embedded institutional models are helping publishers defend revenue, but they are not fully offsetting weaker demand and lower student spending.

Policy and Funding Are Now Direct Market Variables

The report details how Graduate PLUS elimination, loan caps, repayment changes, Pell Grant pressure, Workforce Pell expansion, and low-ROI program accountability could reshape the economics of higher education and redirect demand for course materials. Programs aligned with workforce priorities, including healthcare, engineering, business, and selected trades, may remain more resilient than lower-ROI or shrinking disciplines. These policy shifts are no longer background conditions. They are becoming direct market variables for publishers, platforms, and investors.

Competitive Strength Is Concentrated, Not Broadly Shared

Major publishers are responding through digital platforms, AI-enabled tools, institutional partnerships, and recurring revenue models. The report assesses the positioning of Pearson, Cengage, McGraw Hill, and Wiley, along with broader market activity in acquisitions, divestitures, and platform strategy. The strongest players are shifting toward analytics, subscription access, AI-supported learning, and institutionally embedded delivery rather than relying on traditional one-time textbook sales.

The State of College Course Materials; Outlook to 2027 Report Details

Leading Companies Driving Trends in the The State of College Course Materials; Outlook to 2027

Why the Market Is Changing

The college course materials market is no longer being shaped by textbook format alone. Student affordability pressure, new federal policy, enrollment redistribution, and institutional budget stress are now having direct effects on publisher revenue. Students are spending less, more faculty are assigning free or low-cost materials, and institutions are under pressure to justify the price and performance of every required resource.

Student Spending Has Fallen Faster Than Usage

Average student spending on course materials dropped to $341 in the 2024-2025 academic year, but students still took 8.7 courses and purchased 8.2 materials on average. That matters because it shows the market is not weakening simply because students need fewer materials. Instead, it is being reshaped by lower-cost sourcing behavior, rentals, unauthorized free access, used books, and rising OER use. The report also shows that 97% of students take active steps to avoid buying new textbooks, making affordability one of the most important structural forces in the market.

Digital Is Dominant, but Not Problem-Free

Digital media accounted for 88.3% of market sales in 2025 and is projected to reach 91.1% by 2027. Digital now dominates the market, but it is no longer a sufficient growth engine on its own. Yet even digital growth is not enough to prevent overall market contraction. Simba estimates total sales of new course materials will fall from $3.24 billion in 2025 to $3.11 billion in 2026 and $2.98 billion in 2027. Publishers are leaning harder on subscriptions, Inclusive Access, and institutionally embedded models to stabilize revenue, but student resistance to bundled costs and ongoing institutional budget pressure remain important constraints.

Policy Is Now a Demand Variable

Graduate PLUS elimination, loan caps, repayment changes, Pell pressure, Workforce Pell expansion, and low-ROI program scrutiny all have implications for course materials demand. Fields tied more closely to employment outcomes, including healthcare, engineering, business, and selected trades, are likely to remain more resilient than lower-ROI or shrinking academic areas. This makes policy tracking essential for publishers, platforms, investors, and institutional strategy teams.

The State of College Course Materials, 2025-2027 Report Scope

This report covers the US market for course materials used in higher education settings, including both print and digital products sold or licensed for instructional use. It analyzes market size and forecast trends for new course materials and examines the institutional, student, and policy conditions shaping demand.

Coverage includes student spending, course materials sourcing, funding sources, OER adoption, digital access programs, faculty preferences, AI-related developments, and the strategic responses of major higher education publishers. The report also places course materials demand in the broader context of postsecondary enrollment, freshmen trends, workforce-aligned program growth, federal student aid policy, state higher education funding, and institutional financial pressure.