Study #: 3814 | Published: 05/2020 | Pages: 175 | Individual User License: US$ 5,000

US demand for prefabricated housing is forecast to climb 2.6% per year to 145,300 units in 2024, with value demand reaching $10.8 billion. Gains will be spurred by:

  • the shortage of affordable housing in the US, which will support demand for expensive site-built housing, such as prefabricated units
  • heightened interest among consumers – particularly those whose finances were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic – in less expensive residences that are easier to finance
  • efforts of manufactured housing builders to incorporate many of the features of site-built homes into their properties to enhance their curb appeal
  • increasing use of modular residences – such as accessory dwelling units (ADUs) – to accommodate multigenerational living or to quickly erect multifamily housing complexes

Key Findings in the Prefabricated Housing Study:

Shortage of Affordable Housing to Boost Interest in Prefabricated Housing

The US has a shortage of affordable housing – an issue that is expected to continue due to the high cost and length of time needed to erect site-built homes and the increasing number of younger consumers who will want to own their own homes. This shortage of site-built homes will provide a market opportunity for prefabricated housing manufacturers, who can rapidly construct – for less cost than a site-built home – single-family residences that are affordable while also offering the amenities (such as large kitchens and multiple bathrooms) increasingly desired by consumers.

Manufactured Housing to Remain Popular Housing Choice in the South

Manufactured housing accounted for the largest share of prefabricated housing demand in the US in 2019 and will continue to do so through 2024, supported by its market position in the South. Manufactured housing accounts for a much larger share of the housing market in the South for a number of reasons, including a traditionally high level of use of the homes in the region, a lack of unfavorable zoning requirements that inhibit the placement of these residences, and the ready availability of land on which these residences can be sited. Going forward, the South is expected to see strong population growth; many new residents will opt for manufactured housing units as a more affordable option compared to site-built homes.

Interest in Multigenerational Living to Boost Demand for Modular Homes

Interest in multigenerational living has been on the rise in the US as people look for ways to care for aging relatives, provide childcare, and offset high housing costs across much of the US. One way to accommodate these multigenerational families is to add ADUs– either directly to an existing home or elsewhere on a property. ADUs are modular residences that have their own bathrooms, bedrooms, and living areas but occupy much less space than site-built homes (while also costing less). ADUs are ideal for housing younger people, those who are more interesting in living spaces with a smaller footprint, or senior citizens while also allowing people to live close to their relatives.


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Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Overview

Study Scope & Types of Prefabricated Housing

Historical Market Trends

Prefabricated Housing Unit Demand

Prefabricated Housing Value Demand

Near-Term Impact of COVID-19

Pricing Outlook

Foreign Trade & Stock Changes

3. Factors Impacting Housing Demand

Residential Construction Trends

Housing Starts

Housing Stock

Urban/Rural Housing Patterns

Consumer Financing Trends

Regulatory Issues

HUD Code

Local Zoning

Transportation Regulations

Real Estate Development Trends

Green Building Trends

Cost Advantages Relative to Site-Built Housing

4. Manufactured Housing

Product Description

Supply & Demand

Value Demand & Total Installed Value

Number of Sections

Demand by Type

Single-Section

Double-Section

Three or More Sections

Producers & Market Share

Cost Advantages Relative to Site-Built Construction

Customer Base

Buyer Characteristics

Regional Variation in Demand

Housing Market Penetration by State

Community Ownership Trends

5. Modular (System-Built) Housing

Product Description

Supply & Demand

Value Demand & Total Installed Value

Tiny Homes

Customer Base

Producers & Market Share

6. Precut Housing

Product Description

Supply & Demand

Value Demand & Total Installed Value

Log Houses

Dome, A-Frame, Post-&-Beam

Customer Base

Producers

7. Panelized Housing

Product Description

Supply & Demand

Value Demand & Total Installed Value

Customer Base

Producers

8. Regions

Demand by Region

Northeast

Demand by Prefabricated Housing Type

Demand by Subregion

New England

Middle Atlantic

Midwest

Demand by Prefabricated Housing Type

Demand by Subregion

East North Central

West North Central

South

Demand by Prefabricated Housing

Demand by Subregion

South Atlantic

East South Central

West South Central

West

Demand by Prefabricated Housing Type

Demand by Subregion

Mountain

Pacific

9. Industry Structure

Key Findings & Industry Composition

Market Share

Marketing & Distribution

Mergers & Acquisitions

List of Industry Participants

10. Appendix

Scope

Definitions

Abbreviations

Freedonia Methodology

Study-Specific Methodology

Sources

Associations & Agencies

Related Studies & Reports

Macroeconomic Assumptions

Economic Environment

Regional Economic Outlook

Demographic Trends

Consumer Spending

Housing Starts


List of Tables

2. Overview

Table 2-1 | Prefabricated Housing Market, 2002 - 2019

Table 2-2 | Prefabricated Housing Demand by Type & Market, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 2-3 | Prefabricated Housing Demand by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units & million dollars)

Table 2-4 | Average Prefabricated Housing Retail Prices by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand dollars per unit)

Table 2-5 | US Prefabricated Housing Supply & Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

3. Factors Impacting Housing Demand

Table 3-1 | Consumer Financing Environment, 2009 - 2019

4. Manufactured Housing

Table 4-1 | Manufactured Housing Supply & Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 4-2 | Manufactured Housing Demand & Installed Value, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units & million dollars)

Table 4-3 | Manufactured Housing Demand by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 4-4 | Single-Section Manufactured Housing Demand & Average Floor Space, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units, million dollars, & square feet)

Table 4-5 | Double-Section Manufactured Housing Demand & Average Floor Space, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units, million dollars, & square feet)

Table 4-6 | Three or More Section Manufactured Housing Demand & Average Floor Space, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units, million dollars, & square feet)

Table 4-7 | Manufactured Housing Shipments by Company, 2019 (units)

Table 4-8 | Manufactured Housing Shipments by State, 2019

Table 4-9 | Manufactured Housing Shipments as a Share of Housing Starts by State, 2019

5. Modular (System-Built) Housing

Table 5-1 | Modular Housing Supply & Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 5-2 | Modular Housing Demand & Installed Value, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units & million dollars)

Table 5-3 | Modular Housing Shipments by Company, 2019 (units)

6. Precut Housing

Table 6-1 | Precut Housing Supply & Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 6-2 | Precut Housing Demand & Installed Value, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units & million dollars)

7. Panelized Housing

Table 7-1 | Panelized Housing Supply & Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 7-2 | Panelized Housing Demand & Installed Value, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units & million dollars)

8. Regions

Table 8-1 | Prefabricated Housing Demand by Region, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 8-2 | Northeast Prefabricated Housing Demand by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 8-3 | Northeast Prefabricated Housing Demand by Subregion, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 8-4 | Midwest Prefabricated Housing Demand by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 8-5 | Midwest Prefabricated Housing Demand by Subregion, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 8-6 | South Prefabricated Housing Demand by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 8-7 | South Prefabricated Housing Demand by Subregion, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 8-8 | West Prefabricated Housing Demand by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Table 8-9 | West Prefabricated Housing Demand by Subregion, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

9. Industry Structure

Table 9-1 | US Prefabricated Housing Sales by Company, 2019 (million dollars)

Table 9-2 | Selected Mergers & Acquisitions

Table 9-3 | Selected Industry Participants

10. Appendix

Table 10-1 | Study Scope: US Geographic Regions & Subregions

Table 10-2 | Relevant Industry Codes

Table 10-3 | Relevant HS Codes

Table 10-4 | Abbreviations & Acronyms Used in Study

Table 10-5 | February 2020 Macroeconomic Indicators, 2009 - 2024 (billion 2012 dollars)

Table 10-6 | Gross Domestic Product by Region, 2009 - 2019 (billion 2012 dollars)

Table 10-7 | Resident Population & Households, 2009 - 2029

Table 10-8 | February 2020 Personal Consumption Expenditures, 2009 - 2024 (billion dollars)

Table 10-9 | New Housing Indicators, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)


List of Figures

1. Executive Summary

Figure 1-1 | Prefabricated Housing Market

2. Overview

Figure 2-1 | Prefabricated Housing Demand by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 2-2 | Average Retail Housing Prices, 2009 - 2029 (thousand dollars per unit)

3. Factors Impacting Housing Demand

Figure 3-1 | US Housing Stock, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 3-2 | US Urban/Rural Housing Patterns, 2009 - 2019 (thousand units)

Figure 3-3 | Housing Total Cost by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand dollars per unit)

4. Manufactured Housing

Figure 4-1 | Manufactured Housing Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 4-2 | Manufactured Housing Market Share by Company, 2019 (units)

Figure 4-3 | Cost Comparisons: Manufactured Housing & Site-Built Housing, 2019 (thousand dollars per unit)

Figure 4-4 | Manufactured Housing Shipments by State, 2019 (thousand units)

Figure 4-5 | Manufactured Housing Shipments as a Share of Total Housing Starts by State, 2019 (percent of housing starts)

5. Modular (System-Built) Housing

Figure 5-1 | Modular Housing Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 5-2 | Modular Housing Market Share by Company, 2019 (units)

6. Precut Housing

Figure 6-1 | Precut Housing Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 6-2 | Log House Example

Figure 6-3 | Dome, A-Frame, & Post-&-Beam Examples

7. Panelized Housing

Figure 7-1 | Panelized Housing Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

8. Regions

Figure 8-1 | Prefabricated Housing Demand by Region, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 8-2 | Northeast Prefabricated Housing Demand by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 8-3 | Northeast Prefabricated Housing Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 8-4 | New England Prefabricated Housing Demand Share by Type, 2019 (units)

Figure 8-5 | Middle Atlantic Prefabricated Housing Demand Share by Type, 2019 (units)

Figure 8-6 | Midwest Prefabricated Housing Demand by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 8-7 | Midwest Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 8-8 | East North Central Prefabricated Housing Demand Share by Type, 2019 (units)

Figure 8-9 | West North Central Prefabricated Housing Demand Share by Type, 2019 (units)

Figure 8-10 | South Prefabricated Housing Demand by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 8-11 | South Prefabricated Housing Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 8-12 | South Atlantic Prefabricated Housing Demand Share by Type, 2019 (units)

Figure 8-13 | East South Central Prefabricated Housing Demand Share by Type, 2019 (units)

Figure 8-14 | West South Central Prefabricated Housing Demand Share by Type, 2019 (units)

Figure 8-15 | West Prefabricated Housing Demand by Type, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 8-16 | West Prefabricated Housing Demand, 2009 - 2029 (thousand units)

Figure 8-17 | Mountain Prefabricated Housing Demand Share by Type, 2019 (units)

Figure 8-18 | Pacific Prefabricated Housing Demand Share by Type, 2019 (units)

9. Industry Structure

Figure 9-1 | US Prefabricated Housing Market Share, 2019 (billion dollars)

Figure 9-2 | Prefabricated Housing Market: Leading Supplier, 2019

Figure 9-3 | Prefabricated Housing Market: Second Leading Supplier, 2019

Figure 9-4 | Prefabricated Housing Market: Third Leading Supplier, 2019

10. Appendix

Figure 10-1 | Real GDP: February 2020 Forecast vs. April 2020 Revised Forecast (% annual change)

Figure 10-2 | Annual Growth in Real GDP, 2000 - 2019, Compared to 1980 - 2005 Average (percent)

Figure 10-3 | Annual Population Growth, 2004 - 2019 (percent)

Figure 10-4 | Personal Consumption Expenditures: February 2020 Forecast vs. April 2020 Revised Forecast (% annual change)


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