Macroeconomy: United States

Report Overview

This report forecasts annually to 2028 US gross domestic product (GDP) in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) US dollars. Nominal and real GDP are segmented by component in terms of: services personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nondurable goods PCE, durable goods PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, federal government spending, change in private inventories, and net exports.

This report also forecasts annually to 2028 US retail sales in nominal US dollars. Retail sales are segmented by business type as follows: nondurable goods (eating and drinking places, food and beverage stores, general merchandise stores, gasoline service stations, healthcare and drug stores, apparel and accessory stores, and other nondurable goods retailers) and durable goods (vehicle dealers, general hardware, furniture and furnishings stores, electronics and appliances stores, and other durable goods retailers).

To illustrate historical trends, GDP, retail sales, disposable personal income, interest rates, labor force size, and the various segments are provided in annual series from 2013 to 2023.

GDP is the broadest measure of macroeconomic activity and is defined as the sum of PCE, investment, government spending, and net exports. The Freedonia Group’s Consensus Forecasts for GDP and other major macroeconomic indicators draw on the projections of 10 to 30 sources.

Key macroeconomic indicators are also provided with quantified trends. A full outline of report items by page is available in the Table of Contents.

Who is this report for?

• Manufacturers and service providers in the US seeking to benchmark their performance against the broader economy
• Academics and researchers needing a concise analysis of economic conditions
• Consultants, investors, and financial institutions gauging opportunities and risks in the helium market seeking to benchmark the performance of specific investment opportunities against the broader economy

Table of Contents

• Historical Trends
• Key Demographic Indicators
• Civilian Labor Force
• Impact of COVID-19
• Interest Rate Trends
• Goods & Services Trade
• North America GDP

• Personal Consumption Expenditures
• Investment
• Government
• Net Exports

• Nondurable Goods
• Durable Goods

• Scope
• Sources
• Freedonia Methodology
• Resources

• Figure 1 | Key Trends in US Nominal GDP, 2023 - 2028
• Figure 2 | US Nominal & Real GDP Trends, 2013 - 2023
• Table 1 | Key Demographic Indicators for US GDP Demand; 2013, 2018, 2023, 2028
• Figure 3 | US Civilian Labor Force by Status, 2013 - 2028 (mil persons)
• Table 2 | US Civilian Labor Force by Status, 2013 - 2023 (mil persons)
• Table 3 | US Civilian Labor Force by Status, 2023 - 2028 (mil persons)
• Figure 4 | US Unemployment Rate, 2013 - 2028 (%)
• Figure 5 | US Federal Funds Effective Rate & Bank Prime Loan Rate, Annual Average, 2013 - 2023 (%)
• Table 4 | US Federal Funds Effective Rate & Bank Prime Loan Rate, Annual Average, 2013 - 2023 (%)
• Figure 6 | US Trade in Goods & Services, 2013 - 2023 (US$ bil)
• Table 5 | US Trade in Goods & Services, 2013 - 2023 (US$ bil)
• Figure 7 | North America GDP by Country, 2013 - 2028 (2021US$ tril)
• Table 6 | North America GDP by Country, 2013 - 2023 (2021US$ bil)
• Table 7 | North American GDP by Country, 2023 - 2028 (2021US$ bil)
• Figure 8 | US Nominal GDP by Component, 2023 & 2028 (US$ tril)
• Table 8 | US Nominal GDP by Component, 2013 - 2023 (US$ bil)
• Table 9 | US Nominal GDP by Component, 2023 - 2028 (US$ bil)
• Figure 9 | US Real GDP by Component, 2023 & 2028 (2017US$ tril)
• Table 10 | US Real GDP by Component, 2013 - 2023 (2017US$ bil)
• Table 11 | US Real GDP by Component, 2023 - 2028 (2017US$ bil)
• Figure 10 | US Nominal & Real Gross Domestic Product, 2013 - 2028 (year-on-year % change)
• Figure 11 | US Personal Saving Rate, 2013 - 2023 (% of Disposable Personal Income)
• Figure 12 | US Nominal & Real Disposable Personal Income, 2013 - 2028
• Table 12 | US Nominal & Real Disposable Personal Income, 2013 - 2023
• Table 13 | US Nominal & Real Disposable Personal Income, 2023 - 2028
• Figure 13 | US Nominal Broad Dollar Index, 2013 - 2023 (2013=100)
• Figure 14 | US Retail Sales by Business Type, 2013 - 2028 (US$ tril)
• Figure 15 | US Nominal Retail Sales, 2013 - 2028 (year-on-year percent change)
• Table 14 | US Retail Sales by Business Type, 2013 - 2023 (US$ bil)
• Table 15 | US Retail Sales by Business Type, 2023 - 2028 (US$ bil)