Global Architectural Paint

Report Overview

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This study analyzes the global market for architectural paint. For the purposes of this study, “architectural paint” refers to interior and exterior paint products used in building construction markets, including water- and solvent-based paints, primers, stains, and sealers. White washes and distempers, factory-applied coatings, industrial maintenance coatings, and products used to maintain infrastructure are excluded from the scope. Also excluded are paint thinners, solvents, plasters, and adhesives and sealants.

Markets broken out in this study include:

• new residential construction
• residential remodel and repaint
• nonresidential construction

Paint formulations broken out in the study include:

• water-based
• solvent-based

Additionally, demand is broken out by end user:

• DIY (do-it-yourself)/consumer
• professional

Historical data (2009, 2014, and 2019) are reported in metric tons, with forecasts provided for 2024 and 2029. The term “demand” actually refers to “apparent consumption”, and is defined as production (also referred to variously as “shipments”, “output”, or “supply”) from a country’s domestic manufacturing facilities plus imports minus exports. It is used interchangeably with the terms “market”, “sales”, and “consumption”. In many cases, coatings production data were converted from gallons or liters based on estimates of the average weight.

Demand by Region

World demand for architectural paint is forecast to advance 2.5% per year through 2024 to 33.8 million metric tons:

• The US is one of the world’s most intensive consumers of architectural paint; consequently, trends in the country’s construction sector have a substantial impact on the global paint market.
• The most rapid gains in architectural paint demand will continue to occur among the world’s emerging markets, most prominently in Asia. Healthy expansion is projected for the massive Chinese and Indian markets due in part to growth in the residential repaint and remodel market.

Demand by Formulation

Water-Based Formulations

World demand for water-based architectural paint is forecast to climb 2.8% per year through 2024 to 26.6 million metric tons, outpacing solvent-based products. Efforts to reduce solvent usage and VOC emissions will continue to boost sales, particularly in developing countries that currently feature low penetration rates of these formulations.

The Asia/Pacific region is projected to see the largest absolute gains in water-based paint sales through 2024, buoyed by:

• a widening range of applications for water-based paints in the region’s construction industries
• the ongoing switch to more environmentally friendly products for existing applications

Solvent-Based Formulations

Global demand for solvent-based architectural paint is forecast to expand 1.2% annual pace to 7.2 million metric tons in 2024. Solvent-based paint will continue to lose market share to water-based paints, particularly in developing regions. The displacement of solvent-based paints has already run its course for the most part in developed regions.

Economic status is the primary determinant of solvent-based paint demand in a country. Solvent-based paints have maintained more share in developing countries whose local manufacturers still find it costly to make the technological shift to water-based production. Environmental regulations are typically less strict as well, which limits incentive to make the switch.

However, the architectural paint product mix is important as well. Solvent-based architectural paints retain share in applications where these coatings maintain performance advantages over latex, such as:

• stains
• undercoats
• high gloss exterior paints
• masonry paints
• floor coatings

Demand by Market

The architectural paint market can be divided into three major segments:

• new residential construction
• residential remodel and repaint
• nonresidential construction

The residential markets include paint applied to the interiors and exteriors of single-family homes, multifamily structures (apartment buildings and condominiums), and manufactured housing. Coatings utilized in this sector are valued more for their decorative appeal than is the case in the nonresidential sector, which tends to use more utilitarian or functional materials.

The nonresidential market comprises paint applied to the interiors and exteriors of institutional, commercial, and industrial buildings, such as schools, offices, warehouses, and manufacturing facilities. Nonresidential data exclude industrial maintenance coatings and coatings used in the production of prefabricated metal building products.

Residential Buildings Overview

Residential structures account for the vast majority of demand for architectural coatings, amounting to 73% of the market in 2019. However, residential construction represented just over half of overall global building construction spending. The residential market’s size is attributable to the fact that the aftermarket for architectural paint in residential buildings is much more important than that for nonresidential buildings. The residential remodel and repaint market in any given country is usually far greater than paint demand associated with new construction. Growth will remain solid in the remodel and repaint segment, while greater growth in the new residential segment will be restrained by weak or declining new housing construction in a number of countries.

Demand by End User

Architectural paint is applied either professionally or by the DIYer/consumer. Included in the professional segment are buy-it-yourself (BIY) sales. The BIY category refers to paint purchased by consumers but applied by paint contractors.

Professional paint contractors, sales to whom accounted for 77% of the total in 2019, dominate the global market for architectural paint.

The size of the professional painting sector in a particular market is correlated with the cost of labor:

• Regions with high labor costs – such as North America and Western Europe – typically have larger DIY segments, as homeowners seek to save expenses on home improvement.
• In countries like India, where low-cost labor is readily available, homeowners are likely to hire someone else to paint their homes, especially as disposable incomes increase for the middle class.

Global demand for architectural paint is forecast to advance 2.5% per year through 2024 to 33.8 million metric tons valued at $92.0 billion. Growth will be supported by:

• improving housing conditions in the Asia/Pacific and Africa/Mideast regions
• healthy expansion of repaint and remodel opportunities in the massive Chinese and Indian markets
• rapid expansion of nonresidential building construction in the Asia/Pacific region, bolstering demand for architectural paint in these countries
• increasing do-it-yourself (DIY) activity in developed countries, particularly the US, and global advances in remodel and repaint activity
• the ongoing switch to more environmentally friendly products for existing applications, supporting demand for water-based formulations
• global increases in single-family homeownership

However, stronger gains will be restricted by weaker growth in large, developed countries. Construction of new housing and nonresidential buildings is expected to advance only sluggishly – when it grows at all – throughout most of Europe and North America, particularly in the US where nonresidential construction activity is expected to decline. Additionally, a decrease in single-family housing construction in China will limit gains through 2024.

Global Architectural Paint Market Rebounds Strongly From 2020 Declines

In 2020, the pandemic resulted in the contraction of new housing and nonresidential construction throughout most of the world, which caused the market for paint to dip in that year. However, paint and coatings are often necessary for housing and nonresidential building construction, which continued in a number of areas around the world despite slowdowns and pauses. In particular, the residential market was buoyed by a significant number of homeowners choosing to repaint their homes during the pandemic.

As these markets rebound in 2021, they will boost demand for paint, which is expected to remain relatively strong over the long term due to ongoing healthy expansion in both residential and nonresidential markets, particularly in developing regions.

Residential Market Continues to Drive the Global Architectural Paint Market

Residential structures account for the vast majority of demand for architectural coatings, amounting to 73% of the market in 2019. However, residential building construction represented just over half of overall global building construction activity. The residential market’s size is attributable to the fact that the aftermarket for architectural paint in residential buildings is much more important than that for nonresidential buildings.

Going forward, the residential market will maintain its dominant position in the global architectural paint market, supported by advances in new housing construction and remodeling activity worldwide.