Lubricants

Market Maturity and Improved Product Performance to Affect Demand for Lubricants

US demand for lubricants is forecast to reach 2.4 billion gallons in 2022. Growth will be impacted by lengthening fill intervals arising from the improved performance of currently available lubricants. However, demand will be supported by increases in motor vehicle production and vehicle miles traveled.

Key Findings in the Lubricants Study:

Engine Oils to Remain the Largest Product Type Through 2022

Engine oils are expected to remain the largest product category for lubricants, supported by increases in vehicle miles traveled – particularly by the transportation industry – and motor vehicle production. The introduction of new engine regulations and standards will boost demand for high-value engine oils, primarily synthetic formulations. The increasing penetration of hybrid and electric vehicles, and improvements in both lubricants and engines will restrain stronger growth.

Commercial & Industrial Markets to Provide the Best Opportunities

Continued growth in construction expenditures, as well as a recovery in the number of active oil and gas rigs, will drive demand for lubricants – in particular engine oils and transmission fluids. The transportation equipment market is also forecast to provide good opportunities, with growth in the production of heavy trucks and buses.

Non-conventional Basestocks Will See the Fastest Growth

Petroleum basestocks will remain the largest segment, with gains restrained by slow growth in the overall finished lubricants market and ongoing competition from non-conventional basestocks, including synthetic basestocks. Environmental and safety regulations, as well as consumer demand for “greener” products, will drive demand for products made from biobased basestocks, while re-refined basestocks will benefit from projected growth in oil prices. However, both bio-based and re-refined basestocks will remain niche segments.

Study Coverage

This study presents historical demand data (2007, 2012, and 2017) and forecasts for 2022 by basestock (petroleum and non-conventional), formulation (conventional and non-conventional), product (engine oils, transmission and hydraulic fluids, process oils, metalworking fluids, general industrial oils, gear oils, and greases), and market (light vehicle, commercial and industrial, nondurable goods manufacturing, transportation equipment, and durable goods manufacturing). The study also evaluates company market share and provides analysis on industry competitors including BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, Shell, and Valvoline.