Price Increases to Boost Sales Gains for Grain-Based Foods

Cleveland, OH, February 16, 2022 — US demand for grain-based foods is forecast to grow 2.5% annually in nominal terms through 2025, according to Grain-Based Foods: United States, a report recently released by Freedonia Focus Reports. Suppliers are projected to benefit from population growth and disposable personal income gains. Value gains through the forecast period are expected to benefit from increasing consumer desire for premium foods made with fresh, healthy, or organic ingredients. Faster gains will be restrained by consumers recommencing eating out, shifting spending from retail channels to foodservice and restaurant channels. This shift will increase low-cost bulk sales of grain-based foods to restaurants and other foodservice operators, while sacrificing some higher-priced retail sales.

Grain-based food producers are expected to raise prices, supporting gains in value terms, due to increasing input costs. Grain prices spiked in 2021 due to lower-than-average harvests caused by bad weather and natural disasters. Grain inventories contribute to a lag between movement in raw and milled grain prices. This lag will contribute to high prices in 2022. However, prices are expected to decline toward historical rates through the rest of the forecast period, which will moderate value gains after 2022.

Demand for grain-based foods is expected to see a 4.0% increase in 2021 from 2020 levels. Sales gains will accelerate from 2020's 2.5% increases due to rising prices for various inputs and logistical snarls that have raised prices on many food items. In 2020, unprecedented shifts in food consumption were seen from foodservice to grocery stores, which generally fetch higher profits for manufacturers. Grain-based food producers also benefited as many of these products are consumed at home. Consumption will shift back toward foodservice as people return to out-of-home activities, which will curb faster gains to some extent, as food manufacturers receive lower earnings from their sales to foodservice and restaurants.

These and other key insights are featured in Grain-Based Foods: United States. This report forecasts to 2021 and 2025 US grain-based food demand and shipments in nominal US dollars at the manufacturer level. Demand and shipments are segmented by product in terms of:

• bakery products
• dough, dry pasta, and tortillas
• frozen foods
• salty snacks
• breakfast cereals
• cookies
• crackers
• other products, such as granola bars and perishable prepared foods

To illustrate historical trends, total demand, total production, the various segments, and trade are provided in annual series from 2010 to 2020.

Grain-based foods are based on flour derived from the processed seeds of grain crops (including corn), yielding starch-enriched flours for use in baking and other modes of food preparation. Flours derived from alternative sources such as fruits, vegetables, or nuts (e.g., almonds) are also included. The value of non-grain ingredients in grain-based food items (e.g., pizza toppings and sauce on frozen pizzas) is included.

This report includes the results of a proprietary national online consumer survey of US adults (age 18+). This Freedonia Focus Reports National Survey has a sample size of approximately 2,000, screened for response quality, and representative of the US population on the demographic measures of age, gender, geographic region, race/ethnicity, household income, and the presence/absence of children in the household.

Animal food is excluded from the scope of this report, as are non-grain snack foods such as potato chips. Re-exports of grain-based foods are excluded from demand and trade figures.

More information about the report is available at:

https://www.freedoniafocusreports.com/Grain-Based-Foods-United-States-FF10016/?progid=91541