Cleveland OH, August 13, 2024 – A new report from Freedonia Group, US Roofing, standard laminated asphalt shingles will account for the largest share of demand in this product segment. While demand for them will decline, further losses will be mitigated by consumer interest in replacing three-tab shingle roofs with longer-lasting laminated varieties.
Asphalt shingle roofing demand is forecast to decline through 2028 to $10.2 billion. Growth will be predicated on:
- an overall contraction in roofing activity
- housing starts declining from 2022 to 2024 from previously elevated levels
- severe weather induced a high level of reroofing activity in 2020 and 2021, which will limit demand soon
- increased competition from metal roofing (particularly standing seam metal panels)
- the ongoing shift toward high-performance, laminated asphalt shingles that have longer lifespans
Overall demand for asphalt shingles will be sustained by the large stock of residences already outfitted with them. Home and business owners often specify the same (or very similar) products when it comes time to repair or replace roofing, and laminated asphalt shingles are well-liked for their superior performance and aesthetic qualities.
High-performance laminated asphalt shingles are the only product in this segment expected to see growth in area demand through 2028. These products will continue increasing their share of the asphalt shingle market due to:
- growing consumer recognition of their favorable performance properties, such as weight (which resists uplift) and thickness (which minimizes impact damage)
- the longer product lifespans of these shingles, thereby reducing long-term replacement costs
- their ability to resemble more costly roofing types, such as slate or wood shingles and shakes
Value demand for asphalt shingles is projected to decline. As prices stabilize, value demand will largely track unit demand throughout the forecast period; due to the large declines in demand stemming from standard asphalt and three-tab shingles, overall value demand will decline at a comparable rate.
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