The Future of Meat Alternatives: Plant-Based and Cell-Cultured Products Poised for Growth

The plant-based meat market has seen a surge in popularity over the past decade, driven by concerns about health, animal welfare, and the environment. Furthermore, cultivated (or cell-cultured) chicken products were first available for sale to US consumers in 2023, indicating that a new market is on the rise.

However, the dynamic meat alternatives sector has faced challenges amidst economic pressures and changing consumer habits. As we look ahead, what does the future hold for plant-based meat alternatives?

The Rise of Flexitarianism and Meat Alternatives

Many consumers are adopting a flexitarian diet, reducing their meat consumption rather than eliminating it entirely. This trend is fueled by a desire for healthier options, ethical concerns, and a growing awareness of the environmental impact of meat production. Some omnivores and flexitarians have turned to plant-based meat alternatives such as veggie burgers and plant-based chicken as a way to eat healthier and reduce the impact of meat agriculture.

According to Packaged Facts’ May 2024 National Online Consumer Survey, one in five consumers report using plant-based meat, poultry, or seafood products.

Challenges for Plant-Based Meat

During the pandemic – particularly in 2020 – sales of plant-based meat products soared due to a favorable grocery environment and rapid expansion in consumer adoption.

However, beginning in 2022, the plant-based meat market has faced several challenges, and sales have been declining:

• Economic Pressures: Rising inflation has made plant-based meat alternatives much more expensive than conventional meat, leading some consumers to cut back.

• Taste Preferences: While many consumers appreciate the convenience and healthy perception of plant-based meat, taste preferences can be a barrier to continued purchases.

• Competition: The market is becoming increasingly competitive, and industry consolidation has begun.

Plant-Based Meat Market Set for Growth

Despite a recent downturn, according to Packaged Facts’ new August 2024 report Meat, Poultry, & Seafood Alternatives: Plant-Based and Cell-Cultured Types, plant-based meat suppliers are expected to take advantage of growth opportunities, reversing trends of decline over the next five years. Overall, the plant-based meat market is forecast to grow at an average rate of 2.4% through 2029. The market will benefit from:

• new product introductions and increasing availability
• product improvements that give plant-based meat products better taste and texture
• upward momentum of consumption of these products among those who already eat plant-based meat
• decreases in price (relative to 2024 pricing by product in many cases but also in terms of the product mix incorporating more value-priced versions including private labels) and improved cost positioning in comparison with conventional meat

Consumer adoption is expected to increase as a result from these factors, particularly taste and texture improvements that will lead to higher repeat purchases.

The Emergence of Cultured Meat

Beyond plant-based alternatives, cultured meat technology is poised to disrupt the market. Cultured meat, also known as lab-grown meat or cultivated meat, is produced from animal cells in a laboratory setting. While still in its early stages, this technology offers the potential for a more sustainable and ethical meat alternative and represents the next frontier of possibilities for meat alternatives.

Cultivated chicken products were first released in the US last year as limited time offerings at two fine-dining restaurants. Though most people have not had an opportunity to try cultured meat products, Packaged Facts’ May 2024 National Online Consumer Survey reveals that 42% of consumers say they are open to trying plant-based meat, poultry, or seafood products.

The Road Ahead

The market for meat alternatives is evolving rapidly, driven by consumer demand, technological advancements, and economic factors. While challenges persist, the future looks promising for this innovative sector. As consumers continue to seek healthier, more sustainable food options, plant-based meat alternatives are well-positioned to play a significant role in shaping the future of food.

The emergence of cultured meat also has the potential to cause substantial shifts in meat consumption if tough engineering hurdles are overcome to scale up production and reduce associated costs.

About the blogger:

Cara Rasch is a food and beverage analyst for Packaged Facts. She studies consumer and industry trends in this space and has a B.A. in economics from Allegheny College.

Additional analysis on the organic and clean label consumers can be found in the August 2024 Packaged Facts report Meat, Poultry, & Seafood Alternatives: Plant-Based and Cell-Cultured Types, 3rd Edition..